The story of Indian Mobile VAS

The Indian Telecom scenario abuzz and considered an example in the world where over 5 million subscribers being added every month. There are more operators joining the bandwagon with crazy valuations of 20-30 K INR per subscriber. I had a trip to the Airtel Customer care today and was waiting for an hour (why is a seperate story for another blog) and what i encoutered there kind off raises doubts on the hype and hoopla around both the mobile story and especially the "Value added services driven growth" that everyone seems to be betting.
I atelast saw 12 people coming with a single complaint -
"I didnt activate this XYZ (Jokes, news etc) service and you have deducted 15 Rs from my account"
Most people were being placated by the customer care and by the call to hotline by saying that "YOU" may have activated it "By Mistake". However of these 12 people there were about 10 of them who seem to be the educated category and some of them wielding Ipod Touch screens who clearly werent the kind who would activate it by mistake. Also the process of activating a VAS is to send an SMS to a specific number with a short message like "ACTBWD" ... seems unlikely to happen by mistake.
While 12 people in 1 service center may not be a sample I smell a rat in the consistency of the complaints. Could it be that these services get activated with a "negative consent" meaning a message stating "Activated by default unless u send a NO message"??
Two observations --
One - This could potentially be a way for pushing VAS by letting customer get a flavor hoping that of the million odd activations atleast 10% would continue/ not notice it and hence continue to pay the 15-30 Rs. Good revenue generation idea but purely unethical I say.
Two - The market for VAS seems to be hardly moving -- apart from ringback tones. Given that the cost of these VAS is so low the issue is NOT price but content.
Some time back i had similarly got "mistakenly" subscribed to News alerts and the level of "News" was pathetic. So the issue seems to be lack of "Magnetism of Content".
The VAS content goes down the std. path of bollywood, jokes, Astrology etc. Please note all ye content providers "Yes Indians like ALL of above" but dont like to pay for it and surely NOT the pre-paid customers.
So let me put the thinking cap for some applications for which people wouldnt actually mind paying 30 rs -
For the old people/ technologically handicap who basically use phone ONLY to receive and make calls -- Any continuous stream of SMS would surely BUG them but this wouldn't.
A voice message from Ramdeo Baba to explain them the aasans to be done in morning evening and afternoon "personalized" based on there profile. And how do we do that? Heres how it could work....
Go to any of the common hangouts of the Old people like parks and set up a desk of free healthy juices. Ask them to fill up a form in return profiling there lifestyle ailments etc.
Get these analyzed and set up a Ramdeo baba schedule -- there are enough Yoga masters out there who would do this for a consideration. Approach these Senior citizens again in some time at same place and explain them the concept that for 30 rs a Month they will get a call on health tips "personalized" for them .... 1 month free trial.
Market Potential -- IMMENSE. HIT rate -- High
Possibility of charging even 50 RS a month -- no issues they spend more than that on medicines.
Bottom line - Its world of personalization and thinking different - run of the mill SMS based VAS may not work any longer.

Yes yes i know there are some things to be sorted out in the above but i am sure there is enough talent in the VAS teams of Telcos to do that.

There are more ideas but i think i should be charging consulting charges for my IP :-)
Vodafone, Airtel, Aircel -- i am waiting

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HAIL LORD GANESHA (and hopefully our brains)

The beloved Lord Ganesha is here. This is perhaps one idol which has maximum recall in both India and Western world. Lord Ganesh - a symbol of Well being, Prosperity, auspicious, and above all considered the lord of WISDOM. You know what i actually dont believe the last part.
GANESHA CANNOT SIGNIFY WISDOM - heres why
Every year people primarily across Maharashtra /KAranataka but also across the country bring in Idols of Lord Ganesha. These idols have got fancier, bigger and more intricate by the day. Every year Immersion of idols of Lord Ganesh is carried out on the Ananta Chaturdasi day in the month of Bhadrapada (Chandramana  Calendar), i.e. either in August or September, after ten days of worship.  Thousands of these idols are immersed in water bodies leading to END of 2 things -- GAnesh Festival and the environment. The reason being the Plaster of paris and chemicals used in these idols. Sample taken from the key lakes and water bodies of key chemicals before and after the Ganesh immersion last year show that harmful chemicals like Magnesium, Arsenic and Silicon almost double leading to poisoning and death of fishes and disrupting the entire ecosystem.
Yes there have been several attempts at promoting "Traditional Mud idols"/ Alum idols, natural dyes etc but thats as successful as trying to ask people to buy a car with airbags because its more safe. The bottom line remains that majority of people go for "Cheap" = POP + Chemicals.
In addition it is common knowledge that during immersion there are "fights" between various groups for "privelage" of first immersion = privilege of being the first to pollute.
So now a GOD whose worship leads to only destruction and demolition of nature cannot surely signify WISDOM or we would have had some wisdom to stop revelry in the name of god.
Dont get me wrong, i am not against tradition and celebration and here are some solutions to this. One of my friends actually uses the same idol which is used in the "Temple at Home "(which everyone has) and symbolically immerses it in a bucket and then reinstates it in the temple. Alternatives such as using paper images can be explored which are easier to dispose. however this needs a movement and a law whichc annot be done politically -- this would soon become a Hindu Muslim issue if some politician raised it.... and an employemnt issue too saying idol making supports a cottage industry (actaully Cocaine provides more employment too, wonder why its banned)
The Environmentalists of the world? Green Peace? WHO ? Anyone any ideas to prevent this destruction?
Till then Hail Lord Ganesha, Hail Pollution!!

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Mumbai's new Tourist Hotspot - The MAHIM Wall

Refreshing, unique , Unexpected, Witty , creative, fun, must see, Colorful, clean -- i think there is hardly anything in Mumbai, let alone the tourist spots which fit can fit into all of the above adjectives. But those are some adjectives which exactly fit the "About to be Tourist Hotspot of Mumbai - The MAHIM GRAFFITI WALL"

In a move to beautify the
city, the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation invited citizens to paint
graffiti on walls owned by the civic corporation, and on INdependence
Day, people responded with enthusiasm.

BMC had approached the
Wall Project, a Mumbai-based group specialising in graffiti painting,
to decorate the 3-km wall from Mahim to Dadar railway station along the
Tulsi Pipe road with grafitti. Around 200 artists and also novices in
handling the brush came forward to showcase their talents on the huge
canvas on August 15. The artists are expected to complete the stretch
by August 16.

The result is amazing -- a colorful, witty (ok please refer to begin of page for the adjectives). Here are some images -











However images cant capture this nor can words and this is something
must see and my personal favorite on the wall was this message -
" I have and open mind doesnt mean u can fill it with Rubbish"

My twobits on the initiative -

1. Am I in Mumbai, was this BMC, Ooh My god!!!
2. Next stage is to give entire road stretches to Companies and ask them to maintain/ beutify them in return for "Free" Advt. space on that road for 5-10 years -- imagine a "Tide' road which is Clean and spotless maintained by the company -- win -win for advertisers and BMC
   

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The Brand DNA

Sophie posted an interesting article on facebook " The Luxury Brand Effect: Should BMW sell Ketchup" It hypothesises that recession-wracked shoppers are eager to embrace luxury brand names over a wide range of product categories, including those with little logical connection to the brand's core item.The authors attribute this phenomenon to the "promise of pleasure" — a brand like, say, Cartier evokes strong, positive emotional responses in consumers, and those good feelings can be easily transferred to stuff like furniture, cheese and even, yes, ketchup.
But this aint a new phenomenon. Successful brands and companies alike know that they always have a "Core". There is an underlying "Success mantra" and just like certain names evoke a perception so do brands. E.g. All Indians would realize that a name like Vijay Sighania would evoke images of grandeur , businessman with abundance and royal charm.
So while BMW Ketchup may not necessarily sell because it doesnt derive any characteristics of Brand Core (none i can think of), some examples of companies who have already leveraged there brands "Core" to cross sell services are -
Tata Group (i am biased here) - The brand always signifies trust and solidity. For over a century this brand was entrenched in commodities business like steel and vehicles. However over the past 2 decades you see them moving into leveraging the "Trust and solidity" image across the diaspora of retail products from retail chains (Westside and Chroma) to Mobile (Tata Teleservices now Docomo) to cheaper hotel chains (Ginger) to Tanishq (jewellery and watches).
Another well known example is Harley - which has leveraged the automobile brand to clothing lines, branded accessories and add-ons

So here are some Luxury brands who could leverage there core and associated "product" areas they could move in to by leveraging there Brand DNA -
Wild ideas but as Einstien once said " Its not as important to have knowledge, but absolutely necessary to have imagination"

1. Jimmy Choo can diversify into Ipod Casings,  Car accessories, because its Brand DNA  = Flaunting anything take "encases"
   
2. Ferrari can launch and internet browser because its all about being "Fast"
3. Rolex/ Patek Philippe - can launch a high end airlines because its all about "On time in Class"
4. Bulgaria - scented washing powders anyone
5. Zegna Diapers -- its finally about dressing a man in style why not start from the first cloth worn
   
6. And finally Victorias Secret Condoms --- luxury in initimate moments :-)

Feel free to add more..

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Swine flu affected people banned from Tourist spots

Today the swine flu really seems to have bugged me. I read this article that Swine flu seems to have created a "Health Rift" in Maharashtra India. The village councils of Shriwardhan and Diveghar have banned tourists from Mumbai and Pune.
Both these are popular tourist weekend getaways for people in Mumbai and Pune and the economy of these villages basically survives on tourism. Thus i am sure it was a discussion which would have met with heated debate and opposition. The reason for the ban was that there are yet no cases of Swine flu in these places and they beleive that since these places do not have big medical facilities "Prevention is better than cure" --- or rather Prevention is the Only option and NO cure.
Now my quirky brain starts thinking if we can take such drastic steps just for Swine flu should Mumbai learn this as an example and "Ban people from other regions in India from settling in Mumbai to prevent the spread of a bigger disease -- Overcrowding???"
I leave u with that thought over the weekend -- and OK no more Swine flu posts ;-)

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The advantages of Swine Flu

According to one study, only 1% of those who believe they have swine
flu actually have swine flu. The remaining 99% are suffering from an
unrelated disease: Mass Panicking Syndrome.

And while there is all round scare and hype about "swine flu" there are some good things which i notice as a result of Swine Flu - Some obvious and some not so obvious ones.

1. The illeterate and downtrodden of the world now have a medical degree. My building Gurkha for example now knows the difference between a Virus and Bacteria to the details of the fact that "Virus doesnt have its own cell mechanism like a bacteria". Thanks to the Media. By the way he also now has learnt a new word "Media Hype"
   
2. There is less crowds in the malls and as a result lesser crowds on the roads. I think the greenhouse activists should be happy as the "Pollution" levels would surely have gone down this last week.
3. Theatres, Multiplexes are closed and people are scared to go to any place where there are "crowds" ruling out eataries etc. Which means "families" are actually sitting together an having meals and "talking". In the era of "Social Networking" while people stay in touch with unknown "web friends" they are rarely in touch with the immediate family/ neighbor. Hopefully the self imposed lock down improves the social interactions -- 70's meaning of "Social" of course
4. Euthnasia and suicide is now legal - all people with a death wish need to do is go and stand in the Queue any of the hospitals where testing of swine flu happens. With over 200-300 "Suspected" swine flu candidates standing in the queue u are bound to contract it even if u dont have one and by the time ur number comes ur death wish might have been answered.
   
5. The "Indian Namaste" way of greeting is gaining ground vs shaking hands. I am sure the real reason behind namaste in Shastra's is to spread diseases
6. You can get off a traffic offence if u sneeze as soon as the police constable approaches you.
7. Its become easy to get a 7 day off from office -- all u need to do is get a warm water bath and sneeze.
8. A few people have noses that look like swine. These are the ones who wear masks to avoid being seen.
   
9. All Tamilnadu residents are proud because most of them beleive that the treatment of Swine Flu was invented/ produced in Chennai (Tamiflu)
10. Natural resources have become more valuable than gizmos - People are more worried about the 10 deaths from swine flu vs the 60,000 which dies from Malaria, 100,000 who dies of leptospirosis, and so the cost of a non-electric device like N-94 face mask/ or even the cotton mask is higher than a complex piece of mosquito repellent.
11. 
    

My sympathies with those who died of swine flu but
“2000 people have Swine Flu and the whole world wants to wear
a surgical mask. 20 billion have AIDS and still noone wants to wear a
condom.”

I am sure in all the doom and gloom u too have some more interesting benefits u see of the Swine flu scare.
PLease do share to make this compilation more interesting and do drop down here for some interesting & conspiracy theory based views on Swine Flu.

Footmarks on the Internet

All of us "twitterians" are aware of the site being brought down and both the tech kind as well as  the non-tech kind know that it was a "cyber attack". Whithout going into the technicalities whats interesting is that these attacks makes one to think that as we move into the internet world every step u take is as dangerous as the Jungles of Amazon.

The cost of renting out 10,000 machines—enough to cripple a site like Twitter—has tumbled to $200 a day from between $2,000 and $5,000. "We have seen the price points dropping fast. And if someone can cripple Twitter how safe are you.

This increasing social media and networking has lead to the creation of a dangerous footprint in the internet world - "Digital residue"
Social networking sites open and close based on trends. It was Orkut one day, facebook and twitter now and who knows what next year. But as people move from one social network to another there is a huge amount of personal data lying on all these social networks -- names , photos, scraps, birthdates, conversations -- posted and never pulled down. This is what i call "Digital residue".
This digital residue is extremely dangerous - imagine the small time social n/w site which is now out of trend and filing for bankruptcy -- the kind of money this digital residue can face if sold to digital hackers in simply unimaginable.
Some more discussions regarding Digital Assasination by Barrett Lyon here is interesting and point to how this could be used to slander any individual.
So all you netizens beware - ensure u delete your footmarks as u hop from one social network to another

hacking, telecom, new world, comunications, bots

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The Recession Poem - From my friend Sai

A gut wrenching one from my friend sai on his Blog

"It was the 6 in the evening, time to leave
As I packed my bags and let out a huge heave
My inbox glowed with a nasty red light
What I saw completely changed my sught
It was a nasty mail from my boss
My whole life went for a toss
It was not one of those everyday blips
A note that gave me what u dread, a pink slip
The car and house dreams vanished into thin air
I cried hoarse boss this is just not fair
Where are those countless hours that I spent in front of the laptop
They all seemed to count to nothing as I climbed the rooftop
As my mind raced and heart skipped beats, I could feel the sweat
I thought about my wife, the baby to come and tried to forget
I closed my eyes and decided to end the coming days of shame
The dreams of money, foreign vacations and countless fame
I jumped and felt nothing for some time�������..
Till I realized my wife was shouting at me for a long time
The dream broke, but I was happy that this was a nightmare over
I walked into the bathroom empathizing with the man in the mirror
�.Sai"

Hoarding achieves new highs

We in India have heard of cartels and hoarding of rice, foodgrains, kerosene and even some vegetables like onions by the shrewd Businessman to jack up the prices. Also we have never heard of any litigation leave alone prosecutions in any of these cases. Hence I was shocked to know that someone actually filed for litigation against the increase in prices of “Eggs” --- yes you got it right “Eggs” due to cartel created by 13 companies – Wow!!!

“Steve Ribbing, who runs a family-style restaurant south of Buffalo, got fed up with the growing dent in his company's bottom line. The culprit? Egg prices, which have jumped nearly 50% over the past two years. Ribbing griped to his attorney, an act that ultimately led to a lawsuit against more than a dozen egg producers and the industry's trade group.
Critics say the price jump since 2006 was not particularly mysterious: egg producers, the plaintiffs contend, conspired to restrict supply as part of a broad scheme to boost prices. Ribbing's complaint moved from his lawyer to a large national firm, finally becoming a sweeping lawsuit that recently gained class-action status on behalf of restaurants, grocers, and other direct buyers nationwide. The litigation's targets include 13 of the nation's biggest egg producers, including Cal-Maine Foods (CALM), Pilgrim's Pride (PPC) and Rose Acre Farms, as well as a Georgia-based industry association, the United Egg Producers (UEP). The average retail price of a dozen eggs, which had been stable for the better part of a decade, soared to $2.20 per dozen in March, after climbing from $1.63 in 2007 and $1.30 in 2006, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.”

I hope Venkateshwara Hatcheries doesn’t get any smart ideas from this one!

What goes up comes down or Does it?

On one of those late night shows I came across the Sikkim Mega Super Lotto lottery or something like that where six numbers are picked up and a winner declared depending on how many of your numbers match up to the selected six. As the beautiful hostess accompanied by a somber man who is supposedly some govt. person roll the container to secure the six numbers I wonder how many people actually win this in a lifetime. (By the way I could never figure out what is the need for that person even though he is the sponsor in some way.
I remember that this was a mega craze some years back with Playwin and Super lotto. Cut to 2008 and there is a similar craze in the stock markets “The market has gone down , now is the right time to buy! It will rise…” Both these events are linked, heres how ---
First regarding Super Lotto --
The idea is to pick 6 numbers and match them to six selected from 51 numbers. Sounds easy. The odds of doing so?
If you programmed a computer to randomly generate six different numbers every second taken from the numbers 1 through 51, you would have to wait nearly seven months before every combination came up at least once.
The odds of matching 6 of 6 numbers are 1 in 18,009,460;
5 of 6 are 1 in 66,702;
4 of 6 are 1 in 1,213;
3 of six are 1 in 63.
The odds of winning anything are 1 in 60.
So for the less mathematically inclined, If you buy 100 tickets a week, you can expect to win the jackpot on average every 3,463 years. If you buy Rs 12,50,000 worth of tickets a week, you can expect on average to win about every 14 years. If you expect to live 50 more years, you should buy Rs 350,000 worth of tickets a week if you want to have a good chance of winning the jackpot in this lifetime. Of course, if you do, you may not even break even. You could well be about Rs 100,000,000 in the hole, depending on when you win.
However, if you would be satisfied with getting 5 out of 6, you will have a much easier go of it. You are likely to get 5 out 6 every 12.8 years on average if you buy 100 tickets a week. However, you will have spent nearly Rs 30,00,000 to win about Rs 75,000.
Phew so basically all it means is that the chances are slim. But wait this is just statistical and real life is different. You may never win regardless of how often you play and how much you spend. For e.g. there is a one in two chance of a coin flip coming up heads, but in reality heads might come up more or less than five times in ten flips.
Now the Sensex --
Most retail investors investing on hunches and without proper analysis run similar odds like above. Now to the fallacy that what goes down will come up. Even in super lotto you might think that you can beat the odds by either selecting numbers that have not been chosen in recent drawings, or by selecting numbers that have come up more frequently than expected in recent drawings. In either case, you are committing the gambler's fallacy. The odds are always the same, no matter what numbers have been selected in the past. This fallacy is commonly committed by gamblers who, for instance, bet on red at roulette when black has come up three times in a row. The odds of black coming up next are the same regardless of what colors have come up in previous turns. Dice players frequently commit this fallacy. When they see a player make his point several times in a row, they think the odds of him making his point again diminish. They don't. Those odds are fixed and they never change. For example you see people saying a lot of times just like that without any economic analysis, over a cup of tea but with all the worldly wisdom ‘The markets have tanked for long enough now they will rise”…. And what do we say --- Correct ‘The Gamblers Fallacy”.

First reversal in the Mobile world

"VietNamNet Bridge reports that Vietnam’s Ministry of Information and Communications (MIC) is planning to raise the inter-province calling tariff on fixed line telephone services, which are said to be below cost price. An MIC spokesman said that the country’s wireline providers have long complained that the more they expand their reach, the more losses they incur.

Under the plan, the tariff for intra-province calls will be increased from the current VND120 (USD0.007) per minute to VND200 (USD0.012) per minute, starting from next year until 2010. Meanwhile, the monthly subscription fee will be reduced from the current VND27,000 (USD1.66) to VND20,000 in a bid to attract new users. After 2010, operators will be allowed to adjust the tariffs in accordance with market changes, but the MIC will set a maximum. "

Now wait a minute – how do users increase because of lowering fixed costs by barely a cent whereas the call rates per minute have increased by 75%.
Is this a sign of things to come even in other markets where given competition there have been brutal price wars leading to customers paying next to nothing. A good thought to think on a weekend over a drink!!!

First impressions: Vietnam

Whats the first thing that’s hits u as you come out of the Hanoi airport – shit did I land in Chandigarh instead of Hanoi!!!! You see Toyata Innovas and Chevrolet Optras roaming around – loads of them. Welcome to Hanoi the Capital of Vietnam where I recently went for a 3 day trip.

Its difficult for an amateur traveler (and all the more an amateur writer) to comment on a country based on a 3 day trip that too a business one and so this is in no way a “Lonely planet guide to Vietnam” but simply an Indians inadverent urge to compare his country with others.

So the next thing I notice in Vietnam is that they already have a well established network of Radio taxis and the average cab is a Hyundai Verna/ Toyota Corolla – the cars which we tout in India as the upper middle class aspiration. And to think of this in a country whose local currency Dong stands at ~17000 to a USD.
A certain politician in Mumbai who opposes the High Court directive for replacement of cabs older than 15 years needs to visit Hanoi – I will sponsor the trip if he promises not to come back ;-)

Roads are better than Mumbai. I fail one more time in finding a city on earth which has roads worse than Mumbai ;-). I think I need to plan a trip to the interiors of Congo next to succeed in my mission.
The trip of 40 minutes from Airport to the Sheraton hotel costs me 300,000 in local currency – and I pay him in 3 notes since they have notes for 100,000. It felt strange for all three days to stay there and talk in millions and thousands for a cup of tea or a short cab drive.

The outskirts of Hanoi could be easily mistaken for the outskirts of any Indian city – agricultural land with small 1 storied houses with thatched roofs. Cows tied in cattle shed and the ubiquitous Innova !!!

You see the conventional headgear of sloping hats and people carrying agricultural produce in baskets hung at both ends of a long bamboo – the image which is unmistakably conjures memories of Vietnam. The people well look the same to me like most others in the region.
I always wonder if I will ever be able to distinguish between a Chinese, Vietnamese or a Japanese face. Try as I may they look same to me. Though people have tried explaining to me several times the difference in the length, width, cheek bone profile etc of the different geographies.

A stroll through mid-town the next day was entertaining and shocking at the same time. Entertaining - The city of Hanoi –as with the entire country – is abundant with small lakes and water bodies which have been converted into parks. The French architecture – they were the former colonists- is beautiful and is evident in the floral patterns and arches. The new architecture retains the old world charm but adds a utilatarian touch to the landscape. There are lake side open pubs and eating places buzzing with young couples and joggers. Though level of physical intimacy is again something at which our high moral ground seeking politicians would smirk at.

Shocking - The retail revolution so evident in neighboring nations seems to have skipped Hanoi. Vietnam it seems doesn’t have a MacDonalds though we did encounter a 3 storied KFC. There isn’t a single shopping mall or a multiplex – atleast I didn’t see any in there shopping district and the trips across town. Most districts is still made up of smaller shops and road-side vendors. There was a brand new CK showroom visible though, so hopefully this is the inkling of the retail revolution.

English is not a common language here and you better be good at explaining in “gestures” to get around, though a lot of people know Mandarin. One thing which is beautiful –As is for me in most countries – is the local food. Its not spicy and is mostly comprised of rice in various forms with roasted meat. A lot of hotels we went to served Pigeon though not sure if it’s a delicacy.

Enquiries with the concierge and locals revealed there is no “watering hole district” or a location in town where the city descends on weekends or nights. This is surprising since generally every city I have visited till date has such a zone e.g. Lang Kwai Fong in HK, Bandra in Mumbai etc. The city doesn’t really have nightlife, though the globally ubiquitous prostitution phenomenon is evidently visible.

Locals were of the view that Ho Chi Minh City is a much more happening place since that’s where the better part of corporates and jobs are. Maybe some other time and some other day I would have a chance to visit HCMC to change my first impressions of Vietnam as a staid place which has still to catch on with “life”

"Jet"tisioned airways

The media got its newsbite from crying employees to sob stories of loans gone bad due to job cuts. Jet airways sacking of 1100 people has sent the media in frenzy. Though I find it funny that people say “I took loans to get educated and now u cant sack me!!!” I remember Irfan Khans dialogue in the movie ‘Life in a Metro’ – “Life doesn’t come with a Guarantee clause” – Did Jet sign a contract to retain you for life? And would these same employees have remained loyal to Jet if Kingfisher offered them a better salary – nope they would jump the ship and cite capitalism. But now that the tables are turned there is a hue and cry. I agree that the way in which they were sacked seems incorrect i.e if media reports are to be believed and they were suddenly told to leave. Again I am sure Jet has its bases covered and the contracts talk of a one day notice.

Two observations on the whole episode for me –

1. It’s a Corporate Communications disaster – Thanks to one of my friends who ‘media-trained’ me I know a little bit of corporate communications and I am sure if he reads this post he can comment more. There is no statement/ communication to the media from Jet airways. Ideally you would expect Naresh Goyal --- (creates much more affinity than the Firang CEO) to come in the media – show sympathy for the employees, place the companies side as to how this is important for the companies well being etc – the message can be different but there needs to be some communication. Instead the Jet attitude is – let the storm pass by
   
2. The Raj Thackeray factor –
   It seems Raj Thackeray is developing an image of “Staller’. You don’t want the taxis to go off road, you are unemployed, anything and anyone “theoretically” wronged irrespective of the basis, larger good, safety and such menial factors whom do you turn to – the Staller. He has mastered the art of politicizing simple initiatives and hats off to him for being such a master politician at a young age. However heres the dilemma he faces – Most of these employees are from out of town i.e Non-Mumbaikars.
   Now how will he make a u-turn of his stated stand against these people?
   Or will he tell Jet to give back 1100 jobs but to Mumbaikars !!! Lets wait for the master to deliver his blow.

How to write a horoscope

Invariably when we open a mid-day or Mumbai Mirror we land up reading our Horoscope – often that’s the only interesting thing to read J. Irrespective of whether we claim to be a believer of destiny and horoscopes we do land up reading and somewhere at the back of our mind assessing its implication/ applicability to whats happening in our life. And to your surprise almost 8 out of 10 times there is some applicability of the prediction on our life. In fact I even have a certain friend of mine who was so influenced by the Linda Goodmans Sun signs book that he decided that based on his sun sign he should marry a “Scorpio” and for a long time attempted only to look for Scorpio girls irrespective of the looks and how they behaved.
So are the Marjorie Orr (Mid-day fame) and the Bejan Daruwalas of Times of India crystal gazers and cousins of the (in)famous Nostradamus? Even if they are how do they write horoscopes which apply to billions of Taureans or Librans worldwide and make them feel it applies to them in some manner? Are the global destinies of all Taureans inter-linked?
The answer to a lot of these questions is “Barnum Effect”

The Barnum effect is the name given to a type of subjective validation in which a person finds personal meaning in statements that could apply to many people.

For example:
“You have a need for other people to like and admire you, and yet you tend to be critical of yourself. While you have some personality weaknesses you are generally able to compensate for them. You have considerable unused capacity that you have not turned to your advantage. At times you have serious doubts whether you have made the right decision or done the right thing.”

Does the above statement sound similar to the ones we read in the news papers or “Sun Sign” based astrology books --- that may be because they did. Such statements are sometimes called Barnum statements and they are an effective element in the repertoire of anyone doing readings: astrologers, palm readers, psychics, rumpologists and so on.

If the statements appear on a personality inventory that one believes has been especially prepared for you alone, one often validates the accuracy of such statements and thereby gives validity to the instrument used to arrive at them. If Barnum statements are validated when they have originated during a psychic reading, the validation is taken as also validating the psychic powers of the medium.

"Barnum effect" is an expression that seems to have originated with psychologist Paul Meehl, in deference to circus man P. T. Barnum's reputation as a master psychological manipulator who is said to have claimed "we have something for everybody."

So the next time you read that horoscope and you think “woow it says I am going to have a financial gain today” – don’t go off and invest in the stock markets, just say “Barnum” five times and move on !!!

A message for the Lungiwala

A recent Business week article speaks of the surplus Forex reserve of India – USD 291 billion as on Sept 2008.
This huge reserve has been build based on years of paranoia about economic fluctuations and need of funds to stabilize the economy. However as per reports we are being too cautious – heres why –
According to IMF guidelines, the forex reserves of a country should be sufficient to meet 3-4 months of its import requirements. In India's case this import coverage is for 14 months.
Further, according to the Greenspan-Guidotti rule proposed by former Fed chief Alan Greenspan, the reserves should be no less than the short term debt liabilities of the country. India is secure by a large margin on this ground as well. Its short term debt totals to less than 15% of the reserves amount.
A case in the point is that before this financial crisis India had Forex reserves of USD 310 Billion. So the entire crisis and all the money used has dented Indian reserves by a mere USD 10 billion.

Regression model by economists suggest that accounting for uncertainities like –
capital account openness,
share of imports,
exchange rate flexibility,
Oil shooting to USD 200 /barrel
and even political stability
India has about USD 106 billion worth of excess reserves.
Currently this entire portfolio is held in US T-bills which fetch 4.5% return compare this with the current inflation we are actually earning negative returns. Now consider what other nations with far lesser reserves do (e.g. Norway) – they invest about 50% of surplus in Sovereign wealth funds (SWF). The average return of these wealth funds has been about 15%. However adjusting for economic shocks and current scenario assume we earn 10% i.e 5% more than current on USD 50 Billion (50% of surplus) we would earn an interest payment of USD 2.5 billion more.
This translated into Rs 12,500 crores. This amounts to ~ 5% of the Budgetary deficit and could fund a substantial portion of the budget deficit for any of the following
- Health and Family welfare – 15000 cr
- School education- ~ 17000 cr
- etc

If its really that simple I hope Lungiwala sees this!!!

Book review: Ravan and Eddie by Kiran Mangrurkar

Recently picked up this book – one for its odd title and secondly as it was highly recommended as an accurate view of the Chawl system – where half of Mumbai lives.
It is the story of two children in a chawl in Mumbai whose lives move along parallel paths on two floors in the chawl. As a child Ravan – with an interesting episode behind how his names changes from Ram to Ravan – jumps of the first floor of his chawl into Eddie (yet to be born) father who is eyeing Ravans mother Parvathi. In an attempt to catch and save Ravan he falls down, hits his head and dies on the spot. Eddies mother Voilet, blames Ravan for “murder” of her husband and inadverently sows the same seed in her Son Eddies mind too – who by the way is born on the next day of his fathers death as Voilet gets here labor pains as the hearse van is moving out and infact is taken to the hospital in the same Hearse van with the dead body ;-). It is a hilarious episode with laugh a second humor – a humor built less in “words’ and more in the characters, they way they think and way they interpret life and events in general. Be it Ravans mother Parvathibai who puts up with her Good-for-nothing husband Shankar rao even when he gets a whore home, or be it Father Angello – the priest who is feb up with Eddies antiques and constant tendency to get in trouble – you can actually visualise the characters through the words – you actualy pause to think “why does he think this way”. But the book focuses entirely on Ravan and Eddie with the supporting cast only making a brief appearance. The book also dabbles into small diversions at the authors whims and fancies into – the rise and fall of Shammi Kapoor or the brief history of Portugese in India – which is extremely entertaining and most down to earth view of these things. Though if you are in a hurry its easy to skip these sections and continue with the section – in fact the author advices u to do so J
True to its word the book does shed light on the life in the chawls of Mumbai and though portrayed in several movies e.g. Katha, is one of the best rendering of the “Chawl mentality’ I have read/seen till date.
The episode where Ravan starts thinking he has also murdered Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi and his confusion due to inability to remember any of the two murders he has been accussed off (atleast that’s what he thinks) is side-splitting.
The grouse about the book –
At times it tends to get explicitly sexual – blame it on Marathi authors and of course it ends suddenly. It leads to no conclusion and should be read only as a rendering of the chawl. In fact it ends so abruptly that you actually turn to see if you have a pirated version with pages missing or something (though I bought an official one online).

Verdict –
For - worth a read for the humor, the characters and for an insider view on the life spent by 50% of Mumbai population in Chawls,
Against - Don’t expect any great philosophy or an ending to the story. Enjoy the ride while it lasts and then just get off!!!

Rating on Sam-meter – 3 on 5

Ethics and law

The newspapers are splattered with news of the woman whose plea for abortion of her 26-week foetus was rejected by the Bombay High court has not decided yet whether to approach the Supreme Court, as offers poured to look after the child when it is born. There are several viewpoints which have analysed this case. Unethical to deny!!! Say some... We will take care of the kid!! say others.
I dont think i can take sides with anyone since these are emotional and "what if" "But" kind of issues with both sides arguments based on future event the outcome of which is evenly poised in both directions. But looking at all this media coverage one thing does bother me. If the child were to be born and when he grows up enough to operate a keyboard he would surely know that he was an unwanted child.... what would he think. Wouldnt it kill his will to live even if he is born healthy???? That alone makes me feel that the family should have done what they wanted (perhaps aborted outside this country) but the media glare was to be avoided. I may be wrong like the zillions of others expressing there view.... but what if i am right?

123 Agreement: The Great Indian democracy circus Part 1

After the Arushi Murder case the Indo- US nuclear deal has been the latest entertainment act in the Great Indian Circus. Will the deal sink the govt. and a lot of taxpayers money in re-elections? -- we shall know in 24 hrs. But while the athletes of Indian parliament engage in there pole vaults and acrobatics across parties, I think it is important for we the citizens to know what the deal is all about. A random sample of people around me shows that most of us -- much like our politicians -- are "emotional' of the deal without necessarily having "factual" information on the same and that the deal has in fact taken a back seat in view of the trust vote . In this three part series I intend to make an attempt to explain the deal/ agreement, its implications on Indian power reforms and analyse the drama as it unfolds in the parliament .
The India - US Nuclear deal
What is Nuclear agreement and why is it called the 123 agreement?
The India US Nuclear deal is also called the 123 agreement in reference to Sec. 123 of the U.S. Atomic Energy Act. There is a ban on transfer of nuclear technology to other countries under this Act. The Hyde Act was passed by U.S.A to make an exception for India, to enable transfer of technology for civil nuclear energy.
So whats the whole fuss in this agreement all about?
Under the agreement India will be able to develop a strategic reserve of nuclear fuel to guard against any disruption of supply over the lifetime of its nuclear power reactors. This will mean that India can go ahead and develop Nuclear power plants adding up to 40,000 MW of Nuclear energy to reduce dependence on the depleting Coal, costlier Water and increasingly costly Oil energy. (More analysis on the power situation and how the deal changes it in next part). It will also be able to reprocess US-origin nuclear fuel at a special facility under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards. This would make India the third region unrestricted in that respect by US lawmakers - after the European Union and Japan - and the first to host such a facility under such international safeguards arrangements. Since the processed raw uranium supplied by US can be used for Nuclear weapons manufacturing as well as power generation, the US govt. has incorporated a clause which allows them to inspect the facilities where the raw material is used, so as to ensure it is used for "peaceful" purposes. Fair? I think so. Wouldn't we do the same if we have a similar treaty tomorrow with say Korea???
So the deal is not about building Nuclear plants and only about the raw material?
Correct. The deal only provides the raw material. India still needs to invest over US $ 100 billion over the next 10 years to build Nuclear reactors. The deal is however necessary since the providers of Nuclear reactors and spare parts is a closely held group - Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) which has US stronghold -- and would not enter agreements unless mutually agreed.
Wow! So that's the underlying game of the agreement --Add to the profits of US companies from securing contracts to build these nuclear plants?
If you thought this, you could be the next candidate for the left parties. Please note that the world is not a big NGO and we live in capitalism. People work for profit and mutual gains. So while one of the elements for the deal was profit for US companies like GE Energy, USEC and Westinghouse electric, the game has not played out as well for these US companies. According to the latest buzz the Russian and French nuclear reactor producers like Areva NP SAS, Atomenergoproekt, and ZAO Atomstroyexport are already taking advantage of their long-standing ties with India's nuclear community, and the fact that India has yet to sign the Convention on Supplementary Compensation (CSC) - an international treaty that created a global pool of money to pay victims of nuclear disasters, and since India's not a party to it, any American-built reactors would have to shoulder their own civil liabilities—a cost that would likely prove prohibitive. So, if the deal were to be signed today it would be the Russians and French who would really gain. I am sure if the govt. publicised this well enough the left parties would have sought some solace in a communist nation gaining.
What is the duration of the deal?
The deal is for 40 years and can be extended by another ten years.
Where does the signing stand today?
As on date the agreement has been stalled in the Indian Parliament by opposition leaders (60% of whom have never read the agreement) . By the way India's parliamentary democratic system does not require a government to have its foreign policy decisions endorsed by parliament. Which essentially means that the opposition can ‘vote” on issues and voice concerns but the act of bringing the democracy on its knees is morally unconstitutional – especially when most of the opposition leaders have no clue of what the mechanics of Nuclear deal and care a damn about it.If and when the agreement is signed by both governments, the next step is to enter into agreement with the IAEA ( international atomic energy agency) for safeguards of the civil nuclear reactors to be set up under the 123 agreement and to enter into an agreement with the NSG ( nuclear suppliers group) for supply of nuclear fuel i.e uranium for the civil nuclear reactors. Once India completes the agreements with IAEA and NSG, then the U.S. Congress will vote on the 123 agreement. Once it is approved by the U.S. Congress, then the deal is complete and India and U.S.A can enter into nuclear commerce i.e supply of nuclear reactors, transfer of technology, supply of nuclear fuel etc.
Why do the left and opposition oppose it?
Simple answer -- That's there nature and birth right to oppose anything the ruling party proposes. However lets look at the various reasons which some "intellectuals" have used to oppose the deal.

• The deal prevents India from making any Nuclear tests akin to Pokhran II in 1998

Fact- There is nothing in any agreement India has signed that commits it to cap or reduce its weapons-grade fissile material stockpiles. The agreement does say that if India "unilaterally" detonates a nuclear device the US govt. shall have the right to terminate the agreement with one year notice. However even there under section 13 of the agreement the US govt. needs to undergo a "consultation"process before termination. Here it is important to note that -

First, India has already "bilateralised" its unilateral moratorium in a joint statement with Pakistan issued during Atal Bihari Vajpayee's visit to Lahore as Prime Minister in 1999. Any unilateral India test, therefore, would violate that agreement to begin with.

Secondly, sub-critical tests and computer simulations of the kind the U.S. conducts in order to validate weapon designs would not attract any penalty.

Thirdly, there would, in any case, still be no legal obligation on India not to conduct an explosive test. However it will make the Indian Govt. pause and think of the collateral economic damage it could have in spoling ties with the US govt. While the nuclear deal leaves intact the government's prerogative to accumulate fissile material and build bombs and even test them, it will, presumably, force policymakers to take into account these associated costs. To the extent that this has a rational effect on the size and structure of the country's nuclear weapons programme, this is not necessarily a bad thing.

Finally, the agreement says that that it will take into account the circumstances in which India conducts a nuclear test. These include a ''changed security environment'' or action, which could impact national security. Essentially what it boils down to is that the right to terminate the agreement may not be invoked if Pakistan or China conduct nuclear tests and India responds to that by conducting a test of its own. In a way, this is the first international agreement, which would justify the circumstances in which a nuclear test is conducted. So India is not giving up its right to test and right of return of nuclear fuel does not automatically comes into play.

• Even if the deal doesn't directly force India not to conduct tests, US could cause huge damage to India by terminating the treaty anytime in its duration and hence turning all its nuclear reactors into a junk pile.

Fact - The deal interestingly says that the "right of return" - basically the right to terminate the agreement and stop further supplies - that the Americans have does not automatically comes into effect. It is something the US administration chooses to do. They would have to stop cooperation with India. But whether or not they take back fuel is something they would have to choose to do. Even if, for some reason, they were to take back nuclear fuel, India retains the right to seek alternate sources of fuel for itself. US will have to ensure that it makes necessary arrangements from other third party nations like Russia and France to secure supplies for the remaining period of the agreement to ensure the smooth operation of 'peaceful use of the nuclear fuel' read - power plants. Of course they don't ensure supplies for Nuclear Bomb manufacture if that's why they decide to terminate the agreement. Logical???

There are some other reasons but they are completely bizzare and do not even merit a presence on this blog, but just to provide an example ""The nuclear deal will hamper the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project, Mayawati tells a press conference in Delhi" -- Duh!!!"

If the deal is good why doesn't the govt make the details public?

The agreement and the deal are public and available here. They have however been subject to the usual Indian 'chalta hai" attitude by we the people who care for nothing "politics" and more sinfully by the complete incompetence of the Congress PR machinery to drum up enough support and let the facts known.

Could this ruckus and Blackmail of democracy have been avoided?
Sure. There was only one thing which could have prevented the situation going out of hand and that was PR and Communications. The govt. has miserably failed in educating the population at large on the nitty- gritties of the deal. They should ideally have created open forums for discussions of the deal and a climate of openness. It is easy for politicians to sow the seed of dissent in absence of transparency by making statements like " The govt. is pushing us into US slavery 50 years after freedom from British" - Aka Akali dal. These statements are however difficult to defend in a forum with facts and figures. These forums should have included Corporates and media personalities including the likes of M S Dhoni and Amitabh Bachan supporting the deal. I am sure if they can sell Priya Gold biscuits and Sona chandi chawanprash they can sell a nuclear deal to a nation who thinks thru their eyes. You could win the whole south by enrolling Rajnikant to support the deal. An example of an excellent PR campaign was the voting on Lisbon treaty for Irelands accession to EU conducted earlier this year (which ultimately lead to Ireland not signing up).
Bottom line the Indo-US deal has put the govt. in a "survival mode" purely due to lack of transparency and public propaganda on the deal allowing the conspiracy theorists to leverage this issue to murder democracy.
While this post objectively analyses the "agreement", I will attempt to answer whether the deal is good enough to solve India's power situation in the next part.

Changing face of Indian Justice

Two court decisions in the past week bring to the front the changing face of Indian Justice system.

• One is the ruling by the Punjab and Haryana High Court on petitions by two Muslim personnel of the Indian Air Force seeking permission to grow beards while in uniform.
• Two the ruling given by Supreme court on testimony of rape victims being an evidence in itself amounting to conviction of the accused without requirement on ANY other corroborative evidence including a doctors report.

Both rulings move away from the half a century old Indian Judicial rulings which have had no emotional basis and are based on purely factual knowledge (i dont claim to be an expert but atleast thats what has been in my reading till date based on the rulings in Bombay Bomb blast case, Babri Masjid case and Godhra). I consider the impact of this change as being completely diverse in both cases.

In case 1 the court commented that "growing beards at the most can be stated to be a personal choice and the same is not a compulsive requirement of a person professing Islam. Even if it is presumed to be so, it can be regulated, restricted, if public order, morality and health so requires”. This in my view is a "judgemental" ruling and not factual since the second sentence of the ruling can apply to any religion including Sikhs. I know enough Sikhs who do shave off albiet to utter disdain of their families. A factual view in this case would have been that purely based on the fact that a regulation existed to the effect that "No growing beards with the exception of Sikhs" and the person joining the Air Force knew of this regulation/ accepted the same at the point of joining, hence ruling against the Muslim youths from growing beards. Someone could have then gone and debated that such a rule was unconstitutional or against the religious sentiments but that would have been a seperate case with a different perspective and based on religious interpretations.

In case 2 on the other had the court recognises that in a closed Indian community the fact that a women comes ahead and registers a rape case at the risk of losing her dignity is in itself a proof enough to recognise the crime. There is no further need of corroborative evidence in form of "witness" (the lack of which by the way is the reason why most criminals are acquitted)or even a doctors "report" (which is often modified especially in rural areas). It is upto the presiding judge to evaluate the "credibility' of the story based on the way it is presented by the plaintiff (and not her lawyer). The ruling puts the onus on the accused to prove that there was a "motive' for the plaintiff to frame the accused by making a rape claim. This ruling provides teeth to the system to deliver a swift justice and should lead to more cases being registered and more convictions. Again based on the requirement of factual justice this is an inappropriate ruling given that its fairly judgemental and justice can be deilivered even in absence of clear evidence purely based on "Statement by plaintiff". However in this case the System is being realistic rather than emotional as in case 1.

Two different rulings both with an element of emotion and judgement but both surely will change the face of Indian Judicial system-- one for the better and other for the worse. What do u think?

P.S. - I am not a lawyer or legal professional hence none of the words above are intended to implicate the Indian Judicial System in any manner. These are purely personal views and open to debate.

Circular loop in Oil economics

Guys, reading all these oil stories is putting my brain in a circular loop over the Oil economics.
On one hand we say that the US economy will go in recession because Oil prices will go up. And then over the past few days the analysis for "drop" in crude prices suggests that the prices dropped because of expectation of drop in Oil usage due to US recession. But now that the oil prices have dropped will there be a pick up in consumption and hence no recession ... in which case will the Oil prices move up again !!!! It seems like a see-saw of expectation of oil price drop and recession. A big circular loop or Economics gone "fuzzy" !!!! HELP!!!!