The Next wave of Internet : Goodbye "FREE", Welcome - "Show me the Money"

The internet revolution largely has been built so far on three pillars -

1. Customize,
2. Information at finger tips and
3. Free

of which FREE has been the biggest phenomenon. Jog your memory and the biggest debates or "breaking news" bolstering the strength of Internet have been around FREE e.g. Skype, Napster, Torrents, Porn and more recently "justification for Twitter valuation when its FREE".
I remember till some time back there used to be this whole hype around how "internet" and digital medium will make paid models of "Real media" redundant and news papers will die / music industry will cringe and everything will be "ad-supported". Did that happen? To an extent it did but only till a tipping point where they realised advertisements cant support apps which require "customization" once u achieve a certain scale i.e. no. of users or GB of data transfer. So FREE was more of a luring element and NOT a phenomenon to Stay. Its becoming increasingly time consuming and difficult for an average netizen to download songs/ movies from internet for FREE- Yes the geeks or Torrents still exist but you need to be interested in doing a lot of R&D or be aware of virus threats and NOT be behind firewalls to do this. Wouldnt it be easier to download the same for 0.99 cents from itunes?
The Internet world is now moving to "Monetization" by starting to charge for "good" content. The new race is not to bring out as many apps for free so as to drive eyeballs and then earn advt. but rather the race (and long term winners) will be content aggregators who bring apps relevant enough for netizens to feel its utility and hence pay a small sum for it -- the money being made in volumes. So effectively its become a volume game based on "Quality content" with break-even points at millions of downloads. Look around you and all the companies you feel confident about in the internet world (read have black bottom-line) are the ones leveraging this model. E.g. The gaming companies, Amazon Kindle with its e-books, iTunes stores, GPS applications, Tutoring apps and even good porn sites :-)
I know there will be 2 questions asked - What about Google and what about user generated content?
OK firstly Google -- the Holy Grail and originator of FREE --
Today, Google announced a new program to let publishers limit the amount of paid content Google News users can access for free. And Rupert Murdoch endorsed Microsoft’s recently reported efforts to encourage publishers to “de-list” their content from Google through direct payments or other types of beneficial treatment on Bing.
Both these are indicators of Google also bending to the needs of Monetization. To me Google is the gatekeeper who makes money when the Lords behind the gates make money. So all "enabling tools" required to reach the right content/ apps will remain FREE and is googles domains e.g. Maps, mail, Search etc. Also Google will be a key element in enabling "Preview and Test" for most offerings, but once it gets u to the Pearly gates of content, entry depends on the ability of your wallet to spend. This is a marked diversion from prophecy some years back when Google was to emerge as the killer of Real world media and content.

Second, User generated content -- the argument there is simple - I wouldnt mind watching a Street play for FREE, if its crappy i can walk home but if i want to watch a quality play in a limited time i will go to Broadway based on reviews and buy my tickets. User generated content is for Leisurely wanting to experiment and so has / will continue to have its own space in this picture. It will always remain as a compliment to the real content - it will have its value as an Opinion medium via Social media, Gossip provider , news breaker but not analyzer, non-utility but interesting data provider, avenue provider to entrepreneurs to help them evolve as the next "money generating" company -- in effect the Street play platform to an artist aspiring to perform in Broadway.

So to me the war of FREE has ended and the war of "Relevant content" has begun - the war of Comcast buying NBC, the war of SONY Reader vs Kindle vying for rights to right books, the war of BING vs Google --- because remember behind the behemoth of content on internet are real people needing real salaries to eat real FOOD (& real cosmetics to look beautiful ;-))

Internet, New world, Mometization, google

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Google on Internet in 5 years -- Comments?

Eric Schmidt, CEO of Google, interviewed at Gartner Symposium/ITxpo Orlando 2009
i will add my comments soon but in the interim would like to listen what all of u out there feel

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The story of Indian Mobile VAS

The Indian Telecom scenario abuzz and considered an example in the world where over 5 million subscribers being added every month. There are more operators joining the bandwagon with crazy valuations of 20-30 K INR per subscriber. I had a trip to the Airtel Customer care today and was waiting for an hour (why is a seperate story for another blog) and what i encoutered there kind off raises doubts on the hype and hoopla around both the mobile story and especially the "Value added services driven growth" that everyone seems to be betting.
I atelast saw 12 people coming with a single complaint -
"I didnt activate this XYZ (Jokes, news etc) service and you have deducted 15 Rs from my account"
Most people were being placated by the customer care and by the call to hotline by saying that "YOU" may have activated it "By Mistake". However of these 12 people there were about 10 of them who seem to be the educated category and some of them wielding Ipod Touch screens who clearly werent the kind who would activate it by mistake. Also the process of activating a VAS is to send an SMS to a specific number with a short message like "ACTBWD" ... seems unlikely to happen by mistake.
While 12 people in 1 service center may not be a sample I smell a rat in the consistency of the complaints. Could it be that these services get activated with a "negative consent" meaning a message stating "Activated by default unless u send a NO message"??
Two observations --
One - This could potentially be a way for pushing VAS by letting customer get a flavor hoping that of the million odd activations atleast 10% would continue/ not notice it and hence continue to pay the 15-30 Rs. Good revenue generation idea but purely unethical I say.
Two - The market for VAS seems to be hardly moving -- apart from ringback tones. Given that the cost of these VAS is so low the issue is NOT price but content.
Some time back i had similarly got "mistakenly" subscribed to News alerts and the level of "News" was pathetic. So the issue seems to be lack of "Magnetism of Content".
The VAS content goes down the std. path of bollywood, jokes, Astrology etc. Please note all ye content providers "Yes Indians like ALL of above" but dont like to pay for it and surely NOT the pre-paid customers.
So let me put the thinking cap for some applications for which people wouldnt actually mind paying 30 rs -
For the old people/ technologically handicap who basically use phone ONLY to receive and make calls -- Any continuous stream of SMS would surely BUG them but this wouldn't.
A voice message from Ramdeo Baba to explain them the aasans to be done in morning evening and afternoon "personalized" based on there profile. And how do we do that? Heres how it could work....
Go to any of the common hangouts of the Old people like parks and set up a desk of free healthy juices. Ask them to fill up a form in return profiling there lifestyle ailments etc.
Get these analyzed and set up a Ramdeo baba schedule -- there are enough Yoga masters out there who would do this for a consideration. Approach these Senior citizens again in some time at same place and explain them the concept that for 30 rs a Month they will get a call on health tips "personalized" for them .... 1 month free trial.
Market Potential -- IMMENSE. HIT rate -- High
Possibility of charging even 50 RS a month -- no issues they spend more than that on medicines.
Bottom line - Its world of personalization and thinking different - run of the mill SMS based VAS may not work any longer.

Yes yes i know there are some things to be sorted out in the above but i am sure there is enough talent in the VAS teams of Telcos to do that.

There are more ideas but i think i should be charging consulting charges for my IP :-)
Vodafone, Airtel, Aircel -- i am waiting

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Footmarks on the Internet

All of us "twitterians" are aware of the site being brought down and both the tech kind as well as  the non-tech kind know that it was a "cyber attack". Whithout going into the technicalities whats interesting is that these attacks makes one to think that as we move into the internet world every step u take is as dangerous as the Jungles of Amazon.

The cost of renting out 10,000 machines—enough to cripple a site like Twitter—has tumbled to $200 a day from between $2,000 and $5,000. "We have seen the price points dropping fast. And if someone can cripple Twitter how safe are you.

This increasing social media and networking has lead to the creation of a dangerous footprint in the internet world - "Digital residue"
Social networking sites open and close based on trends. It was Orkut one day, facebook and twitter now and who knows what next year. But as people move from one social network to another there is a huge amount of personal data lying on all these social networks -- names , photos, scraps, birthdates, conversations -- posted and never pulled down. This is what i call "Digital residue".
This digital residue is extremely dangerous - imagine the small time social n/w site which is now out of trend and filing for bankruptcy -- the kind of money this digital residue can face if sold to digital hackers in simply unimaginable.
Some more discussions regarding Digital Assasination by Barrett Lyon here is interesting and point to how this could be used to slander any individual.
So all you netizens beware - ensure u delete your footmarks as u hop from one social network to another

hacking, telecom, new world, comunications, bots

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Will "Public" internet surfing be crucified?

The latest article on Businessweek talks on the crackdown on Cybercafes in India. It seems that the govt. in Maharashtra, Goa, Gujarat and Haryana have started to implement measures like loads of licensing requirement and permits to make life miserable for the Cyber cafe owners. At the same time there is increased onus on the owners to follow Know Your customer (KYC) norms . This all is being done under the pretext of "prevention of terrorist activities" as well as prevention of "pornography". I am not convinced by the logic here. What terorist activities are we refering to? IS it 'mails" being sent from these cybercafes by terrorist organisations caliming responsibility for activities? Shouldnt we be focussing on stopping the activity rather than the post facto "claiming' peice? Or are we referring to the "cyber" frauds? Wouldnt a cyber fraudster use much more sophiscticated means like dynamic Ip and Masking from a personal PC and a high speed personal connection rather than the snail pace of Cybercafes? And with mobile Internet making its way do we really think cracking down on cyberCafes stops Pornography? Today the highest amount of Pornography is in the form of MMS clips and images -- so do we next ask the Mobile operators to switch off the MMS option? I believe this is the same battle which music companies fought against piracy (and finally came to terms with thru iTunes model),the same battle being fought with Blackberry by the govt. Its about time that people realised from these battles that by its nature internet is ubiquitous, "location" independent and hence untraceable. So either you ban it or learn to live with it.
The article hypothesises that this could be a move to aid prroliferation of internet at home!!! Well I think the later is giving too much credit to governments thouhtfullness.
However one interesting fact is that we do notice around me cybercafes do seem to be on the downfall. They have surely dwindled from the hay old days in the early part of the century when there were more cybercafes than PCO's and even then you couldnt find a seat. This is partly driven by redcued craze for "chat rooms" and loss of novelty factor. But it is also driven by the disruption of the business model of these cybercafes. Typically these cafes operated on pirated softwares and a single 64 kbps link used for 10 terminals. However with new licensing norms they can no longer use pirated softwares. At the same time the shooting cost of real estate coupled with lowering of tariffs driven and need for higher speeds for todays casual surfing needs (youtube and downloads vs chats and mail) means they are being boxed from all ends. So will we see the end of "public" surfing? Where does this pitch the plans of Reliance webworlds and other "organised" Cybercafe chains?
In my view the Cybercafe as we know them today - both in size, ambience and utility will die. What will emerge though are "Media Immersion Pods"(MIP) so common in Japan though at different degrees. The MIPs in Japan serve are Cubicles with complete privacy and serve as "Nirvana" space wherein can download music, read novels, watch pornography, play video games, have sex, go to sleep. In fact they have a "night pack" allows use of the pod from 11 p.m. to 8 a.m. for about $10; some places sell toothbrushes and underwear too. Periodically the management needs to remind a customer that the cafe is not a hotel, but above all MIPs respects people's privacy. Though MIP's in Japan are the extreme end (just like other things in Japan telecom e.g. mobile boradband) the MIP's in India too will map them to an extent. Some day Indian cybercafes in MIP avtaar could offer the following services -

• Act as Hotspots for wireless BB connectivity on personal Mobile BB devices, maybe for free with some kind of click ad model paying for this cost
• Act as Gaming Zones for hard core high end '3D immersive" gaming - imagine having Wii terminals and gamers slugging out.
• Act as high end collaboration sites acting as "Public Telepresence rooms" used for "Coaching" for learning a myraid things from Yoga to languages to Karate from remote (maybe another continent)"trainers" or simply the international friends "handout adda"
• Locations for specific downloads like iTunes and eBooks
• A movie parlour wherein you obtain a code to watch streaming movies on home comp

The possibilities are unlimited. Chuck the "terrorist threats", the verdict is out "Cybercafes will be crucified- MIP's will emerge" long live Web 3.0!!!

Death of Long queues

"why is he taking so much time" Honk Honk.... "I should have been in the other queue, It seems ot be moving faster".... "Sorry Lunch break you will have to wait for another half hour".....I am sure each one of us had had these thoughts and heard this waiting in queues -- be it at the toll plaza or at the railway ticket counter or in the world of retail boom even at the Supermarket.

Imagine if you could zoom past the Toll plaza with automatic billing to your mobile, or just wave your mobile phone at the supermarket counter..... be prepared it might happen soon in India too.

Here are some examples where this technology ---Near Field communications (NFC) for geeks -- has already started being implemented.

"From August 2007, the Nokia 6131 NFC phone has been sold to the public inseveral Chinese cities (Xiamen, Guangzhou and Beijing). The phone comes with apre-loaded transport application that can be used in the cities’ public transportsystems. The application includes a prepaid account used to pay for transporttickets, which can also be used to pay in selected shops.

Taiwan is set to become the first country in the world offering mobile debit andcredit card services based on NFC. Both announcements indicate that Taiwaneseoperators and banks are prepared to offer mobile contactless payment services ona large scale."

In the era of shrinking ARPU's and increasing competition for mobile operators in India, I think this is the avenue which many mobile operators in India too would be exploring.

Lets look at the rough economics for a Toll Booth at Vashi in Mumbai. It has about 8 booths both ways. At any given point in time all booths have at least a 4 car queue and at times long snaking queues. However today given the physical nature of transaction, it takes average of 40 secs per person to pay and move -- - more if exact change is not tendered. Which means a capability of serving average 70 cars per booth per hour = 500 cars per hour or 12,000 per day. Even if the processing time can be reduced by 5 secs per car it would mean additional 1500 cars (please note demand is not an issue since the queue is omnipresent). An average of 30 Rs per car means additional revenue of Rs 45000 per day, an increase of ~13%. Imagine a product where a mobile company launches this service wherein you can SMS your car number as you approach the Toll booth so that you have a special lane wherein you can simply pass thru by holding up your mobile, the toll amount being charged to your prepaid/postpaid account This could reduce the processing time to less than 10 secs -- since the person would effectively continue to dirve past with only the number being scanned. The mobile companies could keep 1rs per transaction -either charged extra or by having osme rev share mechanism with the Toll Booth owner since their revenues are increased and costs are reduced. Assuming a ramp upp to 20% customers and increased car traffic to ~ 20000 cars per day ( 1500 additional cars/ 5 secs for a 30 sec reduction in time) there would be a revennue of 2000 rs per day per toll booth, equivalent to 5 peoples ARPU per month.

OK i agree that above is not a worked out product, but i am sure a good product team and some more brainstorming can come up with the final application. I am sure that even if the phone company were to bear the cost of infrastructure to install B-end of the application at the Toll plaza this would be a profitable venture. With added incentives like lower toll cost for paying thru mobile --- you can do this by sharing additional revenues + passing on cost savings of printing receipts to the car owners ---- there would soon be increased usage. An this is just one toll plaza imagine how many such toll booths we encounter just in and around Mumbai, imagine the number of car travellers with mobile phones (90% +), imagine the hotseller this product would be, imagine the increased ARPU's....... imagine similar such applications in Supermarkets, railway tickets, "pay N Park ", Movie tickets, ........... with NFC implemented its not hard for this imaginiation to become a reality.......

Google answer to Microsoft Yahoo! merger

Microsoft To Buy out Yahoo!!! ... Goes the recent headlines in a leading Indian business daily. Media Hype or "there is no smoke without fire" only time shall tell. But Telecom pundits have been hinting of this kind of consolidation for a long time. The Google Microsoft fight has already emerged from being the David and Goliath fight to be the "Clash of the Titans" and its now a game of chess with moves and countermoves... with a difference that both continue to invent pawns with new moves :-).
Hypothetically assuming that Microsoft and Yahoo! do come together what does it mean for Google. Microsoft and Yahoo! have a common DNA -- both once virtual monopolies in their respective games are now defending champions in the telecom arena. Microsoft once the undisputed kind of OS has now to contend with increasing advances of Google who has been increasingly popularising the Software as a service model --- check out Googledocs, google spreadsheet and host of other hosted applications in Googles portfolio. Yahoo! on the other hand once an undisputed king of the mail world and IM (atleast in the world apart from US) is now contending with Skype on one hand and Gmail and Google talk on the other. Yahoo! and Microsoft both have been grapling with Googles advances in the search world and Google seems to be a step ahead with its recent purchase of Doubleclick. Both Yahoo! and Microsoft have been impacted by Googles disruptive market models....... I can go on and on about the moves and countermoves between Yahoo!, Microsoft and Google..... but then this post is not about the war-- its about alliances.
"What will be Google response to a Yahoo! Microsoft merger???"
That is the million dollar question. I am no expert but heres my answer
" Google shall merge/buy Apple"
Sounds wierd -- well it should because most of Google and Apples ideas do.....!!!!
Lets look at a basis for Google Apple merger. Google may have several things but it still lacks one thing an OS. Agreed that it is trying to popularise a SAAS model but you still need an OS till you have every computer in the world having access to an always on Broadband connection. And then too the question of security means that some will still prefer a resident OS. So Google gets an OS from Apple, why Apple you say why not Linux....well simply because the DNA of Google and Apple match ----
Google known for innovation just like Apple for its beautiful and innovative interface (Apple users will swear by it)
Google a challenger so has been Apple since its birth.
Google naming ceremony forced-- the orignal name was Googel but since the firts funding cheque came mispelled as Google they adopted this name. Apple naming ceremony forced -- Apple founder told its staff to find a name by evening or he would name it after the first thing he saw-- an Apple on his desk. ...
Hmm ok the last one is one too far. But the point is Google and Apple both have a DNA fit of Innovation, DNA fit of disruptive business model, DNA fit of challengers.
But what does Apple gain... all said and done Apple has still been a niche player in the OS space with compatibility issues, whereas Google is a master at application development and interoperability. Google could complete the job of getting Apple to mainstream.
Imagine the wild possibilities of marrying the craze of the decade "Apple ipod series" with "Googles video and search capabilities" You could soon be searching, sorting many more things using the ipod than just videos from the itunes store.....
Google is the Media on your iPod -- Google TV, Google Mobile and customised e-newspaper all through Apples mind-blowing GUI and device capabilties. Since viewers had to enter their Google IDs--the same ones they used for Gmail and other premium services--the company had already compiled a rich history of their searching and surfing habits.[3] If you spent a lot of time looking at cars on eBay on your Internet enabled Video ipod , for example, you'd be shown automotive ads the next time you watched Google TV on your iPod. Between 70 and 80 percent of the revenue from each ad went to the content provider, just as it had on the Web. Google TV on the iPod customised for you based on your interests tracked by Google and delivered by Apple.

Google is the Internet with Apple as the interface --- Free wi-fi, a faster version of the Web, the Gbrowser, and the cube transform the technology landscape and our language all delivered on the Apple device of the future which is as freindly and fast to use for video and voice as is the Video iPod.

Google- Apple is God -- Everything you do, every device you touch, every interface that you use, every communication that you do is powered by Google and enabled by Apple device.

The possibilties are unlimited.....or are they????
This is my hypothesis.... I invite the readers to add why they think Apple-Google could be "Tango-Charlie" of the Telecom world and also if you feel otherwise. Let the debate begin......

The Mobile Web

There is a new Internet world and its on your mobile. I see the scorns on your face and i read your thoughts..."Mobile internet is for the savvy and more importantly rich people who can afford the high end phones" " who would want to surf on the small screed" " where is the technology"... and so on. But heres a news which forecasts that the mobile internet mania is not just a "time machine" and there is actually a huge business community out there who beleives in the Mobi mania.
" Now, mobiles have their own Internet sites. Like the com and .net sites accessible through computers, .mobi sites can now be accessed through your mobiles. And the rush to register names have begun. The names that are most sought after are sex (what else) .mobi, adult, hotels, India, finance, entertainment and shop.mobi. These names were among the first 5,000 ones registered and were gone within the first 10 minutes of the opening of the registration process. One-worded less-common names like ‘scooter’ and ‘graphic’ and two-worded common names like ‘chewinggum’ and ‘dropzone’ went within the first 24 hours. According to dotMobi CEO Neil Edwards’ corporate blog, 95,000 .mobi names were bought within the first 48 hours of opening up of registrations. While the registration process for the dotmobi site was opened in last May, in India the momentum has started building of late primarily due to youngsters. Sachin, who heads Mumbai Hosting, a reseller of domain names and web hosting space to the end consumer says that the takers so far have been mostly youngsters. The websites that are accessible over a PC cannot always be opened in your mobile browser. Rich components like photographs and videos need to be removed. Most mobi-sites right now are purely text-based as it is faster to download over the mobile phone networks. Therefore, companies need to redo or optimise their websites to be made available on the mobile phone. This is also called made-for-mobile Internet."

Thus the Mobi-sites shall change the speeds and the surfing expereince on the net. And remember necessity is the mother of invention so once the content is available, the demand starts building up the devices shall re-engineer themselves to suit everyones wallets and technology shall evolve to cater to the masses. Doesnt this sound similar to the times in 1996 when mobile's were first launced? Hold your breaths and be ready to surf the mobile net.....

Death of "per min" mobile calls

"MSN and Yahoo have allowed their Instant messenger (IM) users from India and 14 other countries to be able to invite and chat between each other beggining today. "
I see this as a crucial milestone in the death of the "per min" call rate concept we have known for so long.Seems illogical and out of this world right. I mean yes rates could fall to maybe even 50 ps per min to call to US but it should be "per min" right!!!! NO worng!!!!!!!
Do you pay for your mail on "'per min"? NO
Do you pay for yahoo messenger vocie chat "per min"? NO
Do you pay "per min" for sending the conventional letter? NO
Then why should mobile communications - which is a substitute to all these forms of comunications be any different?
The cost structure of a mobile company is never based on per minute, because mails/chats and voice calls are finally transported as packets of data over fiber optic networks. Hence they all should have the same measure and that measure is "Bytes/MB/Gb" - the measure of data.
So what does all this have to do with MSN and Yahoo? Imagine you have a mobile BB connection which is charged say Rs 500 per month for a 500 MB pack. And through this connection on your mobile you are always logged in to your Yahoo/MSN messenger. Now any person on Yahoo and MSN messenger friendlist can call you and talk to you for hrs "without any per min" charge.
But what about others you say? I say, very soon there will be no others. Just like the mobile revolution has allowed even your "bhajiwala" to own a mobile, the availibility of cheap calls will make the same "bhajiwala"have an IM login id. (Fresh_bhajiwala@yahoo.com :-))
The MSN-Yahoo partnership is a beggining. Today of the 400 mn worldwide users of IM 350 million are on Yahoo or MSN with and accounting for 70% of IM accounts in India. Thus the partnership makes the IM world borderless. With the giants in the fray the smaller players like AOL, Skype, ICQ all shall join the fray. Its in their benefit to do so, because unlike a mobile phone connection an IM id is easy to switch. So subscribers would find it very easy to switch to an IM service which is aprt of a larger IM consortium.
Thus the first milestone to seamlessly connect the current internet aware population on a "non- per min" world has been laid.
The real big leap shall come with the availibility of viable wireless BB solutions like WiMAX which shall be available by 2010. There are several hurdles to jump over right now and too many "technical impossibilities" visualised right now. But to all the skeptics I would just point out that in 2005 none of the sane people in the world would have forecasted a 100 million subscriber base in india in 5 years.
So "Insanities" today are the "miracles" of tomorrow. So dream on and ensure your dreams are classified "insane" today...........!!!!!!