Whats the first thing that’s hits u as you come out of the Hanoi airport – shit did I land in Chandigarh instead of Hanoi!!!! You see Toyata Innovas and Chevrolet Optras roaming around – loads of them. Welcome to Hanoi the Capital of Vietnam where I recently went for a 3 day trip.
Its difficult for an amateur traveler (and all the more an amateur writer) to comment on a country based on a 3 day trip that too a business one and so this is in no way a “Lonely planet guide to Vietnam” but simply an Indians inadverent urge to compare his country with others.
So the next thing I notice in Vietnam is that they already have a well established network of Radio taxis and the average cab is a Hyundai Verna/ Toyota Corolla – the cars which we tout in India as the upper middle class aspiration. And to think of this in a country whose local currency Dong stands at ~17000 to a USD.
A certain politician in Mumbai who opposes the High Court directive for replacement of cabs older than 15 years needs to visit Hanoi – I will sponsor the trip if he promises not to come back ;-)
Roads are better than Mumbai. I fail one more time in finding a city on earth which has roads worse than Mumbai ;-). I think I need to plan a trip to the interiors of Congo next to succeed in my mission.
The trip of 40 minutes from Airport to the Sheraton hotel costs me 300,000 in local currency – and I pay him in 3 notes since they have notes for 100,000. It felt strange for all three days to stay there and talk in millions and thousands for a cup of tea or a short cab drive.
The outskirts of Hanoi could be easily mistaken for the outskirts of any Indian city – agricultural land with small 1 storied houses with thatched roofs. Cows tied in cattle shed and the ubiquitous Innova !!!
You see the conventional headgear of sloping hats and people carrying agricultural produce in baskets hung at both ends of a long bamboo – the image which is unmistakably conjures memories of Vietnam. The people well look the same to me like most others in the region.
I always wonder if I will ever be able to distinguish between a Chinese, Vietnamese or a Japanese face. Try as I may they look same to me. Though people have tried explaining to me several times the difference in the length, width, cheek bone profile etc of the different geographies.
A stroll through mid-town the next day was entertaining and shocking at the same time. Entertaining - The city of Hanoi –as with the entire country – is abundant with small lakes and water bodies which have been converted into parks. The French architecture – they were the former colonists- is beautiful and is evident in the floral patterns and arches. The new architecture retains the old world charm but adds a utilatarian touch to the landscape. There are lake side open pubs and eating places buzzing with young couples and joggers. Though level of physical intimacy is again something at which our high moral ground seeking politicians would smirk at.
Shocking - The retail revolution so evident in neighboring nations seems to have skipped Hanoi. Vietnam it seems doesn’t have a MacDonalds though we did encounter a 3 storied KFC. There isn’t a single shopping mall or a multiplex – atleast I didn’t see any in there shopping district and the trips across town. Most districts is still made up of smaller shops and road-side vendors. There was a brand new CK showroom visible though, so hopefully this is the inkling of the retail revolution.
English is not a common language here and you better be good at explaining in “gestures” to get around, though a lot of people know Mandarin. One thing which is beautiful –As is for me in most countries – is the local food. Its not spicy and is mostly comprised of rice in various forms with roasted meat. A lot of hotels we went to served Pigeon though not sure if it’s a delicacy.
Enquiries with the concierge and locals revealed there is no “watering hole district” or a location in town where the city descends on weekends or nights. This is surprising since generally every city I have visited till date has such a zone e.g. Lang Kwai Fong in HK, Bandra in Mumbai etc. The city doesn’t really have nightlife, though the globally ubiquitous prostitution phenomenon is evidently visible.
Locals were of the view that Ho Chi Minh City is a much more happening place since that’s where the better part of corporates and jobs are. Maybe some other time and some other day I would have a chance to visit HCMC to change my first impressions of Vietnam as a staid place which has still to catch on with “life”
Friday, October 17, 2008
Thursday, October 16, 2008
"Jet"tisioned airways
The media got its newsbite from crying employees to sob stories of loans gone bad due to job cuts. Jet airways sacking of 1100 people has sent the media in frenzy. Though I find it funny that people say “I took loans to get educated and now u cant sack me!!!” I remember Irfan Khans dialogue in the movie ‘Life in a Metro’ – “Life doesn’t come with a Guarantee clause” – Did Jet sign a contract to retain you for life? And would these same employees have remained loyal to Jet if Kingfisher offered them a better salary – nope they would jump the ship and cite capitalism. But now that the tables are turned there is a hue and cry. I agree that the way in which they were sacked seems incorrect i.e if media reports are to be believed and they were suddenly told to leave. Again I am sure Jet has its bases covered and the contracts talk of a one day notice.
Two observations on the whole episode for me –
- It’s a Corporate Communications disaster – Thanks to one of my friends who ‘media-trained’ me I know a little bit of corporate communications and I am sure if he reads this post he can comment more. There is no statement/ communication to the media from Jet airways. Ideally you would expect Naresh Goyal --- (creates much more affinity than the Firang CEO) to come in the media – show sympathy for the employees, place the companies side as to how this is important for the companies well being etc – the message can be different but there needs to be some communication. Instead the Jet attitude is – let the storm pass by
- The Raj Thackeray factor –
It seems Raj Thackeray is developing an image of “Staller’. You don’t want the taxis to go off road, you are unemployed, anything and anyone “theoretically” wronged irrespective of the basis, larger good, safety and such menial factors whom do you turn to – the Staller. He has mastered the art of politicizing simple initiatives and hats off to him for being such a master politician at a young age. However heres the dilemma he faces – Most of these employees are from out of town i.e Non-Mumbaikars.
Now how will he make a u-turn of his stated stand against these people?
Or will he tell Jet to give back 1100 jobs but to Mumbaikars !!! Lets wait for the master to deliver his blow.
How to write a horoscope
Invariably when we open a mid-day or Mumbai Mirror we land up reading our Horoscope – often that’s the only interesting thing to read J. Irrespective of whether we claim to be a believer of destiny and horoscopes we do land up reading and somewhere at the back of our mind assessing its implication/ applicability to whats happening in our life. And to your surprise almost 8 out of 10 times there is some applicability of the prediction on our life. In fact I even have a certain friend of mine who was so influenced by the Linda Goodmans Sun signs book that he decided that based on his sun sign he should marry a “Scorpio” and for a long time attempted only to look for Scorpio girls irrespective of the looks and how they behaved.
So are the Marjorie Orr (Mid-day fame) and the Bejan Daruwalas of Times of India crystal gazers and cousins of the (in)famous Nostradamus? Even if they are how do they write horoscopes which apply to billions of Taureans or Librans worldwide and make them feel it applies to them in some manner? Are the global destinies of all Taureans inter-linked?
The answer to a lot of these questions is “Barnum Effect”
The Barnum effect is the name given to a type of subjective validation in which a person finds personal meaning in statements that could apply to many people.
For example:
“You have a need for other people to like and admire you, and yet you tend to be critical of yourself. While you have some personality weaknesses you are generally able to compensate for them. You have considerable unused capacity that you have not turned to your advantage. At times you have serious doubts whether you have made the right decision or done the right thing.”
Does the above statement sound similar to the ones we read in the news papers or “Sun Sign” based astrology books --- that may be because they did. Such statements are sometimes called Barnum statements and they are an effective element in the repertoire of anyone doing readings: astrologers, palm readers, psychics, rumpologists and so on.
If the statements appear on a personality inventory that one believes has been especially prepared for you alone, one often validates the accuracy of such statements and thereby gives validity to the instrument used to arrive at them. If Barnum statements are validated when they have originated during a psychic reading, the validation is taken as also validating the psychic powers of the medium.
"Barnum effect" is an expression that seems to have originated with psychologist Paul Meehl, in deference to circus man P. T. Barnum's reputation as a master psychological manipulator who is said to have claimed "we have something for everybody."
So the next time you read that horoscope and you think “woow it says I am going to have a financial gain today” – don’t go off and invest in the stock markets, just say “Barnum” five times and move on !!!
So are the Marjorie Orr (Mid-day fame) and the Bejan Daruwalas of Times of India crystal gazers and cousins of the (in)famous Nostradamus? Even if they are how do they write horoscopes which apply to billions of Taureans or Librans worldwide and make them feel it applies to them in some manner? Are the global destinies of all Taureans inter-linked?
The answer to a lot of these questions is “Barnum Effect”
The Barnum effect is the name given to a type of subjective validation in which a person finds personal meaning in statements that could apply to many people.
For example:
“You have a need for other people to like and admire you, and yet you tend to be critical of yourself. While you have some personality weaknesses you are generally able to compensate for them. You have considerable unused capacity that you have not turned to your advantage. At times you have serious doubts whether you have made the right decision or done the right thing.”
Does the above statement sound similar to the ones we read in the news papers or “Sun Sign” based astrology books --- that may be because they did. Such statements are sometimes called Barnum statements and they are an effective element in the repertoire of anyone doing readings: astrologers, palm readers, psychics, rumpologists and so on.
If the statements appear on a personality inventory that one believes has been especially prepared for you alone, one often validates the accuracy of such statements and thereby gives validity to the instrument used to arrive at them. If Barnum statements are validated when they have originated during a psychic reading, the validation is taken as also validating the psychic powers of the medium.
"Barnum effect" is an expression that seems to have originated with psychologist Paul Meehl, in deference to circus man P. T. Barnum's reputation as a master psychological manipulator who is said to have claimed "we have something for everybody."
So the next time you read that horoscope and you think “woow it says I am going to have a financial gain today” – don’t go off and invest in the stock markets, just say “Barnum” five times and move on !!!
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
A message for the Lungiwala
A recent Business week article speaks of the surplus Forex reserve of India – USD 291 billion as on Sept 2008.
This huge reserve has been build based on years of paranoia about economic fluctuations and need of funds to stabilize the economy. However as per reports we are being too cautious – heres why –
According to IMF guidelines, the forex reserves of a country should be sufficient to meet 3-4 months of its import requirements. In India's case this import coverage is for 14 months.
Further, according to the Greenspan-Guidotti rule proposed by former Fed chief Alan Greenspan, the reserves should be no less than the short term debt liabilities of the country. India is secure by a large margin on this ground as well. Its short term debt totals to less than 15% of the reserves amount.
A case in the point is that before this financial crisis India had Forex reserves of USD 310 Billion. So the entire crisis and all the money used has dented Indian reserves by a mere USD 10 billion.
Regression model by economists suggest that accounting for uncertainities like –
capital account openness,
share of imports,
exchange rate flexibility,
Oil shooting to USD 200 /barrel
and even political stability
India has about USD 106 billion worth of excess reserves.
Currently this entire portfolio is held in US T-bills which fetch 4.5% return compare this with the current inflation we are actually earning negative returns. Now consider what other nations with far lesser reserves do (e.g. Norway) – they invest about 50% of surplus in Sovereign wealth funds (SWF). The average return of these wealth funds has been about 15%. However adjusting for economic shocks and current scenario assume we earn 10% i.e 5% more than current on USD 50 Billion (50% of surplus) we would earn an interest payment of USD 2.5 billion more.
This translated into Rs 12,500 crores. This amounts to ~ 5% of the Budgetary deficit and could fund a substantial portion of the budget deficit for any of the following
- Health and Family welfare – 15000 cr
- School education- ~ 17000 cr
- etc
If its really that simple I hope Lungiwala sees this!!!
This huge reserve has been build based on years of paranoia about economic fluctuations and need of funds to stabilize the economy. However as per reports we are being too cautious – heres why –
According to IMF guidelines, the forex reserves of a country should be sufficient to meet 3-4 months of its import requirements. In India's case this import coverage is for 14 months.
Further, according to the Greenspan-Guidotti rule proposed by former Fed chief Alan Greenspan, the reserves should be no less than the short term debt liabilities of the country. India is secure by a large margin on this ground as well. Its short term debt totals to less than 15% of the reserves amount.
A case in the point is that before this financial crisis India had Forex reserves of USD 310 Billion. So the entire crisis and all the money used has dented Indian reserves by a mere USD 10 billion.
Regression model by economists suggest that accounting for uncertainities like –
capital account openness,
share of imports,
exchange rate flexibility,
Oil shooting to USD 200 /barrel
and even political stability
India has about USD 106 billion worth of excess reserves.
Currently this entire portfolio is held in US T-bills which fetch 4.5% return compare this with the current inflation we are actually earning negative returns. Now consider what other nations with far lesser reserves do (e.g. Norway) – they invest about 50% of surplus in Sovereign wealth funds (SWF). The average return of these wealth funds has been about 15%. However adjusting for economic shocks and current scenario assume we earn 10% i.e 5% more than current on USD 50 Billion (50% of surplus) we would earn an interest payment of USD 2.5 billion more.
This translated into Rs 12,500 crores. This amounts to ~ 5% of the Budgetary deficit and could fund a substantial portion of the budget deficit for any of the following
- Health and Family welfare – 15000 cr
- School education- ~ 17000 cr
- etc
If its really that simple I hope Lungiwala sees this!!!
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Book review: Ravan and Eddie by Kiran Mangrurkar
Recently picked up this book – one for its odd title and secondly as it was highly recommended as an accurate view of the Chawl system – where half of Mumbai lives.
It is the story of two children in a chawl in Mumbai whose lives move along parallel paths on two floors in the chawl. As a child Ravan – with an interesting episode behind how his names changes from Ram to Ravan – jumps of the first floor of his chawl into Eddie (yet to be born) father who is eyeing Ravans mother Parvathi. In an attempt to catch and save Ravan he falls down, hits his head and dies on the spot. Eddies mother Voilet, blames Ravan for “murder” of her husband and inadverently sows the same seed in her Son Eddies mind too – who by the way is born on the next day of his fathers death as Voilet gets here labor pains as the hearse van is moving out and infact is taken to the hospital in the same Hearse van with the dead body ;-). It is a hilarious episode with laugh a second humor – a humor built less in “words’ and more in the characters, they way they think and way they interpret life and events in general. Be it Ravans mother Parvathibai who puts up with her Good-for-nothing husband Shankar rao even when he gets a whore home, or be it Father Angello – the priest who is feb up with Eddies antiques and constant tendency to get in trouble – you can actually visualise the characters through the words – you actualy pause to think “why does he think this way”. But the book focuses entirely on Ravan and Eddie with the supporting cast only making a brief appearance. The book also dabbles into small diversions at the authors whims and fancies into – the rise and fall of Shammi Kapoor or the brief history of Portugese in India – which is extremely entertaining and most down to earth view of these things. Though if you are in a hurry its easy to skip these sections and continue with the section – in fact the author advices u to do so J
True to its word the book does shed light on the life in the chawls of Mumbai and though portrayed in several movies e.g. Katha, is one of the best rendering of the “Chawl mentality’ I have read/seen till date.
The episode where Ravan starts thinking he has also murdered Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi and his confusion due to inability to remember any of the two murders he has been accussed off (atleast that’s what he thinks) is side-splitting.
The grouse about the book –
At times it tends to get explicitly sexual – blame it on Marathi authors and of course it ends suddenly. It leads to no conclusion and should be read only as a rendering of the chawl. In fact it ends so abruptly that you actually turn to see if you have a pirated version with pages missing or something (though I bought an official one online).
Verdict –
For - worth a read for the humor, the characters and for an insider view on the life spent by 50% of Mumbai population in Chawls,
Against - Don’t expect any great philosophy or an ending to the story. Enjoy the ride while it lasts and then just get off!!!
Rating on Sam-meter – 3 on 5
It is the story of two children in a chawl in Mumbai whose lives move along parallel paths on two floors in the chawl. As a child Ravan – with an interesting episode behind how his names changes from Ram to Ravan – jumps of the first floor of his chawl into Eddie (yet to be born) father who is eyeing Ravans mother Parvathi. In an attempt to catch and save Ravan he falls down, hits his head and dies on the spot. Eddies mother Voilet, blames Ravan for “murder” of her husband and inadverently sows the same seed in her Son Eddies mind too – who by the way is born on the next day of his fathers death as Voilet gets here labor pains as the hearse van is moving out and infact is taken to the hospital in the same Hearse van with the dead body ;-). It is a hilarious episode with laugh a second humor – a humor built less in “words’ and more in the characters, they way they think and way they interpret life and events in general. Be it Ravans mother Parvathibai who puts up with her Good-for-nothing husband Shankar rao even when he gets a whore home, or be it Father Angello – the priest who is feb up with Eddies antiques and constant tendency to get in trouble – you can actually visualise the characters through the words – you actualy pause to think “why does he think this way”. But the book focuses entirely on Ravan and Eddie with the supporting cast only making a brief appearance. The book also dabbles into small diversions at the authors whims and fancies into – the rise and fall of Shammi Kapoor or the brief history of Portugese in India – which is extremely entertaining and most down to earth view of these things. Though if you are in a hurry its easy to skip these sections and continue with the section – in fact the author advices u to do so J
True to its word the book does shed light on the life in the chawls of Mumbai and though portrayed in several movies e.g. Katha, is one of the best rendering of the “Chawl mentality’ I have read/seen till date.
The episode where Ravan starts thinking he has also murdered Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi and his confusion due to inability to remember any of the two murders he has been accussed off (atleast that’s what he thinks) is side-splitting.
The grouse about the book –
At times it tends to get explicitly sexual – blame it on Marathi authors and of course it ends suddenly. It leads to no conclusion and should be read only as a rendering of the chawl. In fact it ends so abruptly that you actually turn to see if you have a pirated version with pages missing or something (though I bought an official one online).
Verdict –
For - worth a read for the humor, the characters and for an insider view on the life spent by 50% of Mumbai population in Chawls,
Against - Don’t expect any great philosophy or an ending to the story. Enjoy the ride while it lasts and then just get off!!!
Rating on Sam-meter – 3 on 5
Wednesday, August 06, 2008
Ethics and law
The newspapers are splattered with news of the woman whose plea for abortion of her 26-week foetus was rejected by the Bombay High court has not decided yet whether to approach the Supreme Court, as offers poured to look after the child when it is born. There are several viewpoints which have analysed this case. Unethical to deny!!! Say some... We will take care of the kid!! say others.
I dont think i can take sides with anyone since these are emotional and "what if" "But" kind of issues with both sides arguments based on future event the outcome of which is evenly poised in both directions. But looking at all this media coverage one thing does bother me. If the child were to be born and when he grows up enough to operate a keyboard he would surely know that he was an unwanted child.... what would he think. Wouldnt it kill his will to live even if he is born healthy???? That alone makes me feel that the family should have done what they wanted (perhaps aborted outside this country) but the media glare was to be avoided. I may be wrong like the zillions of others expressing there view.... but what if i am right?
I dont think i can take sides with anyone since these are emotional and "what if" "But" kind of issues with both sides arguments based on future event the outcome of which is evenly poised in both directions. But looking at all this media coverage one thing does bother me. If the child were to be born and when he grows up enough to operate a keyboard he would surely know that he was an unwanted child.... what would he think. Wouldnt it kill his will to live even if he is born healthy???? That alone makes me feel that the family should have done what they wanted (perhaps aborted outside this country) but the media glare was to be avoided. I may be wrong like the zillions of others expressing there view.... but what if i am right?
Monday, July 21, 2008
123 Agreement: The Great Indian democracy circus Part 1
After the Arushi Murder case the Indo- US nuclear deal has been the latest entertainment act in the Great Indian Circus. Will the deal sink the govt. and a lot of taxpayers money in re-elections? -- we shall know in 24 hrs. But while the athletes of Indian parliament engage in there pole vaults and acrobatics across parties, I think it is important for we the citizens to know what the deal is all about. A random sample of people around me shows that most of us -- much like our politicians -- are "emotional' of the deal without necessarily having "factual" information on the same and that the deal has in fact taken a back seat in view of the trust vote . In this three part series I intend to make an attempt to explain the deal/ agreement, its implications on Indian power reforms and analyse the drama as it unfolds in the parliament .
The India - US Nuclear deal
What is Nuclear agreement and why is it called the 123 agreement?
The India US Nuclear deal is also called the 123 agreement in reference to Sec. 123 of the U.S. Atomic Energy Act. There is a ban on transfer of nuclear technology to other countries under this Act. The Hyde Act was passed by U.S.A to make an exception for India, to enable transfer of technology for civil nuclear energy.
So whats the whole fuss in this agreement all about?
Under the agreement India will be able to develop a strategic reserve of nuclear fuel to guard against any disruption of supply over the lifetime of its nuclear power reactors. This will mean that India can go ahead and develop Nuclear power plants adding up to 40,000 MW of Nuclear energy to reduce dependence on the depleting Coal, costlier Water and increasingly costly Oil energy. (More analysis on the power situation and how the deal changes it in next part). It will also be able to reprocess US-origin nuclear fuel at a special facility under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards. This would make India the third region unrestricted in that respect by US lawmakers - after the European Union and Japan - and the first to host such a facility under such international safeguards arrangements. Since the processed raw uranium supplied by US can be used for Nuclear weapons manufacturing as well as power generation, the US govt. has incorporated a clause which allows them to inspect the facilities where the raw material is used, so as to ensure it is used for "peaceful" purposes. Fair? I think so. Wouldn't we do the same if we have a similar treaty tomorrow with say Korea???
So the deal is not about building Nuclear plants and only about the raw material?
Correct. The deal only provides the raw material. India still needs to invest over US $ 100 billion over the next 10 years to build Nuclear reactors. The deal is however necessary since the providers of Nuclear reactors and spare parts is a closely held group - Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) which has US stronghold -- and would not enter agreements unless mutually agreed.
Wow! So that's the underlying game of the agreement --Add to the profits of US companies from securing contracts to build these nuclear plants?
If you thought this, you could be the next candidate for the left parties. Please note that the world is not a big NGO and we live in capitalism. People work for profit and mutual gains. So while one of the elements for the deal was profit for US companies like GE Energy, USEC and Westinghouse electric, the game has not played out as well for these US companies. According to the latest buzz the Russian and French nuclear reactor producers like Areva NP SAS, Atomenergoproekt, and ZAO Atomstroyexport are already taking advantage of their long-standing ties with India's nuclear community, and the fact that India has yet to sign the Convention on Supplementary Compensation (CSC) - an international treaty that created a global pool of money to pay victims of nuclear disasters, and since India's not a party to it, any American-built reactors would have to shoulder their own civil liabilities—a cost that would likely prove prohibitive. So, if the deal were to be signed today it would be the Russians and French who would really gain. I am sure if the govt. publicised this well enough the left parties would have sought some solace in a communist nation gaining.
What is the duration of the deal?
The deal is for 40 years and can be extended by another ten years.
Where does the signing stand today?
As on date the agreement has been stalled in the Indian Parliament by opposition leaders (60% of whom have never read the agreement) . By the way India's parliamentary democratic system does not require a government to have its foreign policy decisions endorsed by parliament. Which essentially means that the opposition can ‘vote” on issues and voice concerns but the act of bringing the democracy on its knees is morally unconstitutional – especially when most of the opposition leaders have no clue of what the mechanics of Nuclear deal and care a damn about it.If and when the agreement is signed by both governments, the next step is to enter into agreement with the IAEA ( international atomic energy agency) for safeguards of the civil nuclear reactors to be set up under the 123 agreement and to enter into an agreement with the NSG ( nuclear suppliers group) for supply of nuclear fuel i.e uranium for the civil nuclear reactors. Once India completes the agreements with IAEA and NSG, then the U.S. Congress will vote on the 123 agreement. Once it is approved by the U.S. Congress, then the deal is complete and India and U.S.A can enter into nuclear commerce i.e supply of nuclear reactors, transfer of technology, supply of nuclear fuel etc.
Why do the left and opposition oppose it?
Simple answer -- That's there nature and birth right to oppose anything the ruling party proposes. However lets look at the various reasons which some "intellectuals" have used to oppose the deal.
Sure. There was only one thing which could have prevented the situation going out of hand and that was PR and Communications. The govt. has miserably failed in educating the population at large on the nitty- gritties of the deal. They should ideally have created open forums for discussions of the deal and a climate of openness. It is easy for politicians to sow the seed of dissent in absence of transparency by making statements like " The govt. is pushing us into US slavery 50 years after freedom from British" - Aka Akali dal. These statements are however difficult to defend in a forum with facts and figures. These forums should have included Corporates and media personalities including the likes of M S Dhoni and Amitabh Bachan supporting the deal. I am sure if they can sell Priya Gold biscuits and Sona chandi chawanprash they can sell a nuclear deal to a nation who thinks thru their eyes. You could win the whole south by enrolling Rajnikant to support the deal. An example of an excellent PR campaign was the voting on Lisbon treaty for Irelands accession to EU conducted earlier this year (which ultimately lead to Ireland not signing up).
Bottom line the Indo-US deal has put the govt. in a "survival mode" purely due to lack of transparency and public propaganda on the deal allowing the conspiracy theorists to leverage this issue to murder democracy.
While this post objectively analyses the "agreement", I will attempt to answer whether the deal is good enough to solve India's power situation in the next part.
The India - US Nuclear deal
What is Nuclear agreement and why is it called the 123 agreement?
The India US Nuclear deal is also called the 123 agreement in reference to Sec. 123 of the U.S. Atomic Energy Act. There is a ban on transfer of nuclear technology to other countries under this Act. The Hyde Act was passed by U.S.A to make an exception for India, to enable transfer of technology for civil nuclear energy.
So whats the whole fuss in this agreement all about?
Under the agreement India will be able to develop a strategic reserve of nuclear fuel to guard against any disruption of supply over the lifetime of its nuclear power reactors. This will mean that India can go ahead and develop Nuclear power plants adding up to 40,000 MW of Nuclear energy to reduce dependence on the depleting Coal, costlier Water and increasingly costly Oil energy. (More analysis on the power situation and how the deal changes it in next part). It will also be able to reprocess US-origin nuclear fuel at a special facility under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards. This would make India the third region unrestricted in that respect by US lawmakers - after the European Union and Japan - and the first to host such a facility under such international safeguards arrangements. Since the processed raw uranium supplied by US can be used for Nuclear weapons manufacturing as well as power generation, the US govt. has incorporated a clause which allows them to inspect the facilities where the raw material is used, so as to ensure it is used for "peaceful" purposes. Fair? I think so. Wouldn't we do the same if we have a similar treaty tomorrow with say Korea???
So the deal is not about building Nuclear plants and only about the raw material?
Correct. The deal only provides the raw material. India still needs to invest over US $ 100 billion over the next 10 years to build Nuclear reactors. The deal is however necessary since the providers of Nuclear reactors and spare parts is a closely held group - Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) which has US stronghold -- and would not enter agreements unless mutually agreed.
Wow! So that's the underlying game of the agreement --Add to the profits of US companies from securing contracts to build these nuclear plants?
If you thought this, you could be the next candidate for the left parties. Please note that the world is not a big NGO and we live in capitalism. People work for profit and mutual gains. So while one of the elements for the deal was profit for US companies like GE Energy, USEC and Westinghouse electric, the game has not played out as well for these US companies. According to the latest buzz the Russian and French nuclear reactor producers like Areva NP SAS, Atomenergoproekt, and ZAO Atomstroyexport are already taking advantage of their long-standing ties with India's nuclear community, and the fact that India has yet to sign the Convention on Supplementary Compensation (CSC) - an international treaty that created a global pool of money to pay victims of nuclear disasters, and since India's not a party to it, any American-built reactors would have to shoulder their own civil liabilities—a cost that would likely prove prohibitive. So, if the deal were to be signed today it would be the Russians and French who would really gain. I am sure if the govt. publicised this well enough the left parties would have sought some solace in a communist nation gaining.
What is the duration of the deal?
The deal is for 40 years and can be extended by another ten years.
Where does the signing stand today?
As on date the agreement has been stalled in the Indian Parliament by opposition leaders (60% of whom have never read the agreement) . By the way India's parliamentary democratic system does not require a government to have its foreign policy decisions endorsed by parliament. Which essentially means that the opposition can ‘vote” on issues and voice concerns but the act of bringing the democracy on its knees is morally unconstitutional – especially when most of the opposition leaders have no clue of what the mechanics of Nuclear deal and care a damn about it.If and when the agreement is signed by both governments, the next step is to enter into agreement with the IAEA ( international atomic energy agency) for safeguards of the civil nuclear reactors to be set up under the 123 agreement and to enter into an agreement with the NSG ( nuclear suppliers group) for supply of nuclear fuel i.e uranium for the civil nuclear reactors. Once India completes the agreements with IAEA and NSG, then the U.S. Congress will vote on the 123 agreement. Once it is approved by the U.S. Congress, then the deal is complete and India and U.S.A can enter into nuclear commerce i.e supply of nuclear reactors, transfer of technology, supply of nuclear fuel etc.
Why do the left and opposition oppose it?
Simple answer -- That's there nature and birth right to oppose anything the ruling party proposes. However lets look at the various reasons which some "intellectuals" have used to oppose the deal.
- The deal prevents India from making any Nuclear tests akin to Pokhran II in 1998
Fact- There is nothing in any agreement India has signed that commits it to cap or reduce its weapons-grade fissile material stockpiles. The agreement does say that if India "unilaterally" detonates a nuclear device the US govt. shall have the right to terminate the agreement with one year notice. However even there under section 13 of the agreement the US govt. needs to undergo a "consultation"process before termination. Here it is important to note that -
First, India has already "bilateralised" its unilateral moratorium in a joint statement with Pakistan issued during Atal Bihari Vajpayee's visit to Lahore as Prime Minister in 1999. Any unilateral India test, therefore, would violate that agreement to begin with.
Secondly, sub-critical tests and computer simulations of the kind the U.S. conducts in order to validate weapon designs would not attract any penalty.
Thirdly, there would, in any case, still be no legal obligation on India not to conduct an explosive test. However it will make the Indian Govt. pause and think of the collateral economic damage it could have in spoling ties with the US govt. While the nuclear deal leaves intact the government's prerogative to accumulate fissile material and build bombs and even test them, it will, presumably, force policymakers to take into account these associated costs. To the extent that this has a rational effect on the size and structure of the country's nuclear weapons programme, this is not necessarily a bad thing.
Finally, the agreement says that that it will take into account the circumstances in which India conducts a nuclear test. These include a ''changed security environment'' or action, which could impact national security. Essentially what it boils down to is that the right to terminate the agreement may not be invoked if Pakistan or China conduct nuclear tests and India responds to that by conducting a test of its own. In a way, this is the first international agreement, which would justify the circumstances in which a nuclear test is conducted. So India is not giving up its right to test and right of return of nuclear fuel does not automatically comes into play.
- Even if the deal doesn't directly force India not to conduct tests, US could cause huge damage to India by terminating the treaty anytime in its duration and hence turning all its nuclear reactors into a junk pile.
Fact - The deal interestingly says that the "right of return" - basically the right to terminate the agreement and stop further supplies - that the Americans have does not automatically comes into effect. It is something the US administration chooses to do. They would have to stop cooperation with India. But whether or not they take back fuel is something they would have to choose to do. Even if, for some reason, they were to take back nuclear fuel, India retains the right to seek alternate sources of fuel for itself. US will have to ensure that it makes necessary arrangements from other third party nations like Russia and France to secure supplies for the remaining period of the agreement to ensure the smooth operation of 'peaceful use of the nuclear fuel' read - power plants. Of course they don't ensure supplies for Nuclear Bomb manufacture if that's why they decide to terminate the agreement. Logical???
There are some other reasons but they are completely bizzare and do not even merit a presence on this blog, but just to provide an example ""The nuclear deal will hamper the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project, Mayawati tells a press conference in Delhi" -- Duh!!!"
If the deal is good why doesn't the govt make the details public?
The agreement and the deal are public and available here. They have however been subject to the usual Indian 'chalta hai" attitude by we the people who care for nothing "politics" and more sinfully by the complete incompetence of the Congress PR machinery to drum up enough support and let the facts known.
Could this ruckus and Blackmail of democracy have been avoided?Sure. There was only one thing which could have prevented the situation going out of hand and that was PR and Communications. The govt. has miserably failed in educating the population at large on the nitty- gritties of the deal. They should ideally have created open forums for discussions of the deal and a climate of openness. It is easy for politicians to sow the seed of dissent in absence of transparency by making statements like " The govt. is pushing us into US slavery 50 years after freedom from British" - Aka Akali dal. These statements are however difficult to defend in a forum with facts and figures. These forums should have included Corporates and media personalities including the likes of M S Dhoni and Amitabh Bachan supporting the deal. I am sure if they can sell Priya Gold biscuits and Sona chandi chawanprash they can sell a nuclear deal to a nation who thinks thru their eyes. You could win the whole south by enrolling Rajnikant to support the deal. An example of an excellent PR campaign was the voting on Lisbon treaty for Irelands accession to EU conducted earlier this year (which ultimately lead to Ireland not signing up).
Bottom line the Indo-US deal has put the govt. in a "survival mode" purely due to lack of transparency and public propaganda on the deal allowing the conspiracy theorists to leverage this issue to murder democracy.
While this post objectively analyses the "agreement", I will attempt to answer whether the deal is good enough to solve India's power situation in the next part.
Friday, July 18, 2008
Changing face of Indian Justice
Two court decisions in the past week bring to the front the changing face of Indian Justice system.
- One is the ruling by the Punjab and Haryana High Court on petitions by two Muslim personnel of the Indian Air Force seeking permission to grow beards while in uniform.
- Two the ruling given by Supreme court on testimony of rape victims being an evidence in itself amounting to conviction of the accused without requirement on ANY other corroborative evidence including a doctors report.
Both rulings move away from the half a century old Indian Judicial rulings which have had no emotional basis and are based on purely factual knowledge (i dont claim to be an expert but atleast thats what has been in my reading till date based on the rulings in Bombay Bomb blast case, Babri Masjid case and Godhra). I consider the impact of this change as being completely diverse in both cases.
In case 1 the court commented that "growing beards at the most can be stated to be a personal choice and the same is not a compulsive requirement of a person professing Islam. Even if it is presumed to be so, it can be regulated, restricted, if public order, morality and health so requires”. This in my view is a "judgemental" ruling and not factual since the second sentence of the ruling can apply to any religion including Sikhs. I know enough Sikhs who do shave off albiet to utter disdain of their families. A factual view in this case would have been that purely based on the fact that a regulation existed to the effect that "No growing beards with the exception of Sikhs" and the person joining the Air Force knew of this regulation/ accepted the same at the point of joining, hence ruling against the Muslim youths from growing beards. Someone could have then gone and debated that such a rule was unconstitutional or against the religious sentiments but that would have been a seperate case with a different perspective and based on religious interpretations.
In case 2 on the other had the court recognises that in a closed Indian community the fact that a women comes ahead and registers a rape case at the risk of losing her dignity is in itself a proof enough to recognise the crime. There is no further need of corroborative evidence in form of "witness" (the lack of which by the way is the reason why most criminals are acquitted)or even a doctors "report" (which is often modified especially in rural areas). It is upto the presiding judge to evaluate the "credibility' of the story based on the way it is presented by the plaintiff (and not her lawyer). The ruling puts the onus on the accused to prove that there was a "motive' for the plaintiff to frame the accused by making a rape claim. This ruling provides teeth to the system to deliver a swift justice and should lead to more cases being registered and more convictions. Again based on the requirement of factual justice this is an inappropriate ruling given that its fairly judgemental and justice can be deilivered even in absence of clear evidence purely based on "Statement by plaintiff". However in this case the System is being realistic rather than emotional as in case 1.
Two different rulings both with an element of emotion and judgement but both surely will change the face of Indian Judicial system-- one for the better and other for the worse. What do u think?
P.S. - I am not a lawyer or legal professional hence none of the words above are intended to implicate the Indian Judicial System in any manner. These are purely personal views and open to debate.
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Circular loop in Oil economics
Guys, reading all these oil stories is putting my brain in a circular loop over the Oil economics.
On one hand we say that the US economy will go in recession because Oil prices will go up. And then over the past few days the analysis for "drop" in crude prices suggests that the prices dropped because of expectation of drop in Oil usage due to US recession. But now that the oil prices have dropped will there be a pick up in consumption and hence no recession ... in which case will the Oil prices move up again !!!! It seems like a see-saw of expectation of oil price drop and recession. A big circular loop or Economics gone "fuzzy" !!!! HELP!!!!
On one hand we say that the US economy will go in recession because Oil prices will go up. And then over the past few days the analysis for "drop" in crude prices suggests that the prices dropped because of expectation of drop in Oil usage due to US recession. But now that the oil prices have dropped will there be a pick up in consumption and hence no recession ... in which case will the Oil prices move up again !!!! It seems like a see-saw of expectation of oil price drop and recession. A big circular loop or Economics gone "fuzzy" !!!! HELP!!!!
SecondCareer after 60
There is an interesting jab by Scott Adams on his blog on the increasing life expectancy driven by miracles of medical sciences. Scott in his usual sarcastic flair says that this increased life expectancy points to the need for voluntary "assisted suicide" or Euthanasia.
The concept of Euthanasia has been debated again and again in the context of terminally ill patients. While that issue itself has been boiling under "ethical" vs "rights" debate Scott's post brings up a completely new thought to my mind.
We have indeed been seeing progress in Medical sciences prolonging the life expectancy especially in the educated, well off segment (McCain is perhaps the most eminent example) but an interesting point to note is that retirement ages in most employments (again with the exception of politics) have not move beyond the 58-60 yrs band. Even able bodies and vast expereinces resulting from illustrious careers have not been able to overcome this age barrier. The questions raised on when Mr. Tata retires is a point in this regard. So the question remains that inspite of all these advances why hasnt the retirement ages advanced? Perhaps its because the advances in medical sciences are more physical and there are yet no sustained/proven measures to prevent mental detirioration beyond 60. There is still no medicine which after spending 60 years on earth prevents you from reflecting on the "banalities" of life and reflecting on 'what have you done" or for that matter treating Alzhiemers which perhaps everyone expereines in varying degrees. The only medicine is remaining fit by training your mind and body and challenging it. And retirement at 60 precisely ends this "crucial life force" for the brain. The forced vaccum on the brain detiriorates even the able bodied faster.
So the question for the day is --- There is a huge chunk of this population beyond 60 who are reasonably well off in monetary terms and have nothing to do-- inspite of the fact that they have vast expereince and perhaps even the will to do something , albiet different from what they have been doing all their life. Is there a business opportunity -- akin to the Tata initiative of secondcareer.com launched for women who take a break at pregnancy-- to retrain this class and use their vast experience in either entreprenual or service activities?
Cant point out what these will be, but am sure we can think of some. Any ideas?
The concept of Euthanasia has been debated again and again in the context of terminally ill patients. While that issue itself has been boiling under "ethical" vs "rights" debate Scott's post brings up a completely new thought to my mind.
We have indeed been seeing progress in Medical sciences prolonging the life expectancy especially in the educated, well off segment (McCain is perhaps the most eminent example) but an interesting point to note is that retirement ages in most employments (again with the exception of politics) have not move beyond the 58-60 yrs band. Even able bodies and vast expereinces resulting from illustrious careers have not been able to overcome this age barrier. The questions raised on when Mr. Tata retires is a point in this regard. So the question remains that inspite of all these advances why hasnt the retirement ages advanced? Perhaps its because the advances in medical sciences are more physical and there are yet no sustained/proven measures to prevent mental detirioration beyond 60. There is still no medicine which after spending 60 years on earth prevents you from reflecting on the "banalities" of life and reflecting on 'what have you done" or for that matter treating Alzhiemers which perhaps everyone expereines in varying degrees. The only medicine is remaining fit by training your mind and body and challenging it. And retirement at 60 precisely ends this "crucial life force" for the brain. The forced vaccum on the brain detiriorates even the able bodied faster.
So the question for the day is --- There is a huge chunk of this population beyond 60 who are reasonably well off in monetary terms and have nothing to do-- inspite of the fact that they have vast expereince and perhaps even the will to do something , albiet different from what they have been doing all their life. Is there a business opportunity -- akin to the Tata initiative of secondcareer.com launched for women who take a break at pregnancy-- to retrain this class and use their vast experience in either entreprenual or service activities?
Cant point out what these will be, but am sure we can think of some. Any ideas?
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Will "Public" internet surfing be crucified?
The latest article on Businessweek talks on the crackdown on Cybercafes in India. It seems that the govt. in Maharashtra, Goa, Gujarat and Haryana have started to implement measures like loads of licensing requirement and permits to make life miserable for the Cyber cafe owners. At the same time there is increased onus on the owners to follow Know Your customer (KYC) norms . This all is being done under the pretext of "prevention of terrorist activities" as well as prevention of "pornography". I am not convinced by the logic here. What terorist activities are we refering to? IS it 'mails" being sent from these cybercafes by terrorist organisations caliming responsibility for activities? Shouldnt we be focussing on stopping the activity rather than the post facto "claiming' peice? Or are we referring to the "cyber" frauds? Wouldnt a cyber fraudster use much more sophiscticated means like dynamic Ip and Masking from a personal PC and a high speed personal connection rather than the snail pace of Cybercafes? And with mobile Internet making its way do we really think cracking down on cyberCafes stops Pornography? Today the highest amount of Pornography is in the form of MMS clips and images -- so do we next ask the Mobile operators to switch off the MMS option? I believe this is the same battle which music companies fought against piracy (and finally came to terms with thru iTunes model),the same battle being fought with Blackberry by the govt. Its about time that people realised from these battles that by its nature internet is ubiquitous, "location" independent and hence untraceable. So either you ban it or learn to live with it.
The article hypothesises that this could be a move to aid prroliferation of internet at home!!! Well I think the later is giving too much credit to governments thouhtfullness.
However one interesting fact is that we do notice around me cybercafes do seem to be on the downfall. They have surely dwindled from the hay old days in the early part of the century when there were more cybercafes than PCO's and even then you couldnt find a seat. This is partly driven by redcued craze for "chat rooms" and loss of novelty factor. But it is also driven by the disruption of the business model of these cybercafes. Typically these cafes operated on pirated softwares and a single 64 kbps link used for 10 terminals. However with new licensing norms they can no longer use pirated softwares. At the same time the shooting cost of real estate coupled with lowering of tariffs driven and need for higher speeds for todays casual surfing needs (youtube and downloads vs chats and mail) means they are being boxed from all ends. So will we see the end of "public" surfing? Where does this pitch the plans of Reliance webworlds and other "organised" Cybercafe chains?
In my view the Cybercafe as we know them today - both in size, ambience and utility will die. What will emerge though are "Media Immersion Pods"(MIP) so common in Japan though at different degrees. The MIPs in Japan serve are Cubicles with complete privacy and serve as "Nirvana" space wherein can download music, read novels, watch pornography, play video games, have sex, go to sleep. In fact they have a "night pack" allows use of the pod from 11 p.m. to 8 a.m. for about $10; some places sell toothbrushes and underwear too. Periodically the management needs to remind a customer that the cafe is not a hotel, but above all MIPs respects people's privacy. Though MIP's in Japan are the extreme end (just like other things in Japan telecom e.g. mobile boradband) the MIP's in India too will map them to an extent. Some day Indian cybercafes in MIP avtaar could offer the following services -
The article hypothesises that this could be a move to aid prroliferation of internet at home!!! Well I think the later is giving too much credit to governments thouhtfullness.
However one interesting fact is that we do notice around me cybercafes do seem to be on the downfall. They have surely dwindled from the hay old days in the early part of the century when there were more cybercafes than PCO's and even then you couldnt find a seat. This is partly driven by redcued craze for "chat rooms" and loss of novelty factor. But it is also driven by the disruption of the business model of these cybercafes. Typically these cafes operated on pirated softwares and a single 64 kbps link used for 10 terminals. However with new licensing norms they can no longer use pirated softwares. At the same time the shooting cost of real estate coupled with lowering of tariffs driven and need for higher speeds for todays casual surfing needs (youtube and downloads vs chats and mail) means they are being boxed from all ends. So will we see the end of "public" surfing? Where does this pitch the plans of Reliance webworlds and other "organised" Cybercafe chains?
In my view the Cybercafe as we know them today - both in size, ambience and utility will die. What will emerge though are "Media Immersion Pods"(MIP) so common in Japan though at different degrees. The MIPs in Japan serve are Cubicles with complete privacy and serve as "Nirvana" space wherein can download music, read novels, watch pornography, play video games, have sex, go to sleep. In fact they have a "night pack" allows use of the pod from 11 p.m. to 8 a.m. for about $10; some places sell toothbrushes and underwear too. Periodically the management needs to remind a customer that the cafe is not a hotel, but above all MIPs respects people's privacy. Though MIP's in Japan are the extreme end (just like other things in Japan telecom e.g. mobile boradband) the MIP's in India too will map them to an extent. Some day Indian cybercafes in MIP avtaar could offer the following services -
- Act as Hotspots for wireless BB connectivity on personal Mobile BB devices, maybe for free with some kind of click ad model paying for this cost
- Act as Gaming Zones for hard core high end '3D immersive" gaming - imagine having Wii terminals and gamers slugging out.
- Act as high end collaboration sites acting as "Public Telepresence rooms" used for "Coaching" for learning a myraid things from Yoga to languages to Karate from remote (maybe another continent)"trainers" or simply the international friends "handout adda"
- Locations for specific downloads like iTunes and eBooks
- A movie parlour wherein you obtain a code to watch streaming movies on home comp
The possibilities are unlimited. Chuck the "terrorist threats", the verdict is out "Cybercafes will be crucified- MIP's will emerge" long live Web 3.0!!!
Monday, October 22, 2007
One Afternoon at the Passport office...
Man behind Window (MBW) -"VSNL is a government entity".....
Me -"No sir it isnt, ist owned by the Tata group" ...
MBW - "No, No Its government, you need a No Objection certificate ...." (yawns)
Me (desperate) -- "Sir it WAS a government enterprise its now a listed private company...."
MBW -" Please come and meet my senior officer"
Me and MBW go to meet senior officer, the whole queue stares at us .... ready to pounce and bury me for wasting their (already long wasted) time further.....
MBW and me stand in front of officer while he signs some docs and talks on the phone.
Officer- Yes
MBW - Sir He (pointing at me) is a govt. employee and doesnt have a NOC....
Me - (cutting in between) ... I am not a govt. employee -- I work for VSNL....
Officer - VSNL ,( Duh!!!! ) -- full form kaay?
Me - Videsh San.....
MBW -- (Butting in) ... Videsh Sanchar Nigam Limited .... Govt. company Sahib.... ( I think its in the MBW's KRA to reject at least one application per hour and he is desperately trying to achieve the same)
Me - No NO its listed, it has TATA group majority stake .... they bought it in 2002. ( I suddenly realise if this man can perplex me so much with 10 words.... what "third degree torture would be with Mumbai Police")
Officer --- (looking at me skeptically and then at the MBW confidently) --- Are you sure?
Me - Yes Yes !!!
Officer - (Scratches his head and considers for a while) ..... Are you ready to give it in writing
Me - ( With a cocktail feeling of Confusion, shock, amusement and desperation) Give what in writing???
Officer - That VSNL is not a govt. entity and you do not require a NOC....
Me - You want ME to write that
Officer - Yes and sign .....
Me - OK (I thought for a second the officer would also ask me to swear on Bhagwad Gita " Whatever i say is the truth and the ultimate truth")
Me and MBW walk back to the window -- once again we get stares and grunts for delay....
I scrtch out a letter on a "rough page" provided by MBW, he apporves of it (seems dejected though for not achieveing his KRA) and accepts the papers for
"Issue of Additional Passport Booklet"............
--- "This is based on a true incident at the regional Passport office Worli, Mumbai. The characters and script are totally real and any lack of resemblence to real characters is purely due to shortfalls in my writing skills."
I have a lot to say on the whole process for issue of Passports and peripheral services but specifically on the above issue. Is a letter from me good enough proof of me not being a Govt. employee?, shouldnt the govt. issue a list of companies which are govt. and require NOC?
Why should eveen grassroot level govt. employees including sweepers, Clerks, Primary Secondary school teachers etc require a No Objection Certificate from the Govt.? Is there any risk of them absconding with "secret data" and if they do want to abscond, wouldnt they make a passport first and then try to abscond? Why, why, why.........?
More on how the whole process is a "organisational process" disaster as would be classified by "Goal" famous Elihau Goldraitt in coming posts.
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
Death of Long queues
"why is he taking so much time" Honk Honk.... "I should have been in the other queue, It seems ot be moving faster".... "Sorry Lunch break you will have to wait for another half hour".....I am sure each one of us had had these thoughts and heard this waiting in queues -- be it at the toll plaza or at the railway ticket counter or in the world of retail boom even at the Supermarket.
Imagine if you could zoom past the Toll plaza with automatic billing to your mobile, or just wave your mobile phone at the supermarket counter..... be prepared it might happen soon in India too.
Here are some examples where this technology ---Near Field communications (NFC) for geeks -- has already started being implemented.
"From August 2007, the Nokia 6131 NFC phone has been sold to the public inseveral Chinese cities (Xiamen, Guangzhou and Beijing). The phone comes with apre-loaded transport application that can be used in the cities’ public transportsystems. The application includes a prepaid account used to pay for transporttickets, which can also be used to pay in selected shops.
Taiwan is set to become the first country in the world offering mobile debit andcredit card services based on NFC. Both announcements indicate that Taiwaneseoperators and banks are prepared to offer mobile contactless payment services ona large scale."
Imagine if you could zoom past the Toll plaza with automatic billing to your mobile, or just wave your mobile phone at the supermarket counter..... be prepared it might happen soon in India too.
Here are some examples where this technology ---Near Field communications (NFC) for geeks -- has already started being implemented.
"From August 2007, the Nokia 6131 NFC phone has been sold to the public inseveral Chinese cities (Xiamen, Guangzhou and Beijing). The phone comes with apre-loaded transport application that can be used in the cities’ public transportsystems. The application includes a prepaid account used to pay for transporttickets, which can also be used to pay in selected shops.
Taiwan is set to become the first country in the world offering mobile debit andcredit card services based on NFC. Both announcements indicate that Taiwaneseoperators and banks are prepared to offer mobile contactless payment services ona large scale."
In the era of shrinking ARPU's and increasing competition for mobile operators in India, I think this is the avenue which many mobile operators in India too would be exploring.
Lets look at the rough economics for a Toll Booth at Vashi in Mumbai. It has about 8 booths both ways. At any given point in time all booths have at least a 4 car queue and at times long snaking queues. However today given the physical nature of transaction, it takes average of 40 secs per person to pay and move -- - more if exact change is not tendered. Which means a capability of serving average 70 cars per booth per hour = 500 cars per hour or 12,000 per day. Even if the processing time can be reduced by 5 secs per car it would mean additional 1500 cars (please note demand is not an issue since the queue is omnipresent). An average of 30 Rs per car means additional revenue of Rs 45000 per day, an increase of ~13%. Imagine a product where a mobile company launches this service wherein you can SMS your car number as you approach the Toll booth so that you have a special lane wherein you can simply pass thru by holding up your mobile, the toll amount being charged to your prepaid/postpaid account This could reduce the processing time to less than 10 secs -- since the person would effectively continue to dirve past with only the number being scanned. The mobile companies could keep 1rs per transaction -either charged extra or by having osme rev share mechanism with the Toll Booth owner since their revenues are increased and costs are reduced. Assuming a ramp upp to 20% customers and increased car traffic to ~ 20000 cars per day ( 1500 additional cars/ 5 secs for a 30 sec reduction in time) there would be a revennue of 2000 rs per day per toll booth, equivalent to 5 peoples ARPU per month.
OK i agree that above is not a worked out product, but i am sure a good product team and some more brainstorming can come up with the final application. I am sure that even if the phone company were to bear the cost of infrastructure to install B-end of the application at the Toll plaza this would be a profitable venture. With added incentives like lower toll cost for paying thru mobile --- you can do this by sharing additional revenues + passing on cost savings of printing receipts to the car owners ---- there would soon be increased usage. An this is just one toll plaza imagine how many such toll booths we encounter just in and around Mumbai, imagine the number of car travellers with mobile phones (90% +), imagine the hotseller this product would be, imagine the increased ARPU's....... imagine similar such applications in Supermarkets, railway tickets, "pay N Park ", Movie tickets, ........... with NFC implemented its not hard for this imaginiation to become a reality.......
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
Between the Rock & a Hard place
Let’s say your spouse decides to cook you an extra special meal. It’s your favorite. It takes him/her a lot of work. You enjoy the meal and naturally offer to do the cleaning up by yourself.
But here’s the kicker: Your spouse loves to cook, and you hate to clean up, especially after a long day and a big meal. As you wipe down the table and wash the extra-high pile of pots and pans from the extra-special meal, which thought do you have?
1. My spouse gave me something special tonight.
2. I got screwed in this deal.
--- Credited to Scott Adams
And something on related lines --
Dr. Rangel says ---
"Wine her, Dine her, Call her, Hug her, Support her, Hold her, Surprise her, Compliment her, Smile at her, Listen to her, Laugh with her, Cry with her, Romance her, Encourage her, Believe in her, Pray with her, Pray for her, Cuddle with her, Shop with her, Give her jewelry, Buy her flowers, Hold her hand, Write love letters to her, Go to the end of the Earth and back again for her."
Just imagine substituting “him” for “her” in this passage, and telling women to do it. “I want to be his girlfriend, not his slave” would be a reasonable response.
But here’s the kicker: Your spouse loves to cook, and you hate to clean up, especially after a long day and a big meal. As you wipe down the table and wash the extra-high pile of pots and pans from the extra-special meal, which thought do you have?
1. My spouse gave me something special tonight.
2. I got screwed in this deal.
--- Credited to Scott Adams
And something on related lines --
Dr. Rangel says ---
"Wine her, Dine her, Call her, Hug her, Support her, Hold her, Surprise her, Compliment her, Smile at her, Listen to her, Laugh with her, Cry with her, Romance her, Encourage her, Believe in her, Pray with her, Pray for her, Cuddle with her, Shop with her, Give her jewelry, Buy her flowers, Hold her hand, Write love letters to her, Go to the end of the Earth and back again for her."
Just imagine substituting “him” for “her” in this passage, and telling women to do it. “I want to be his girlfriend, not his slave” would be a reasonable response.
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
Dilemmas of "Hi-Hello" acquaintances
My aunt has diabetesYou see, that's the trouble with people you know slightly. Those you know well, you can sit and talk for hours. And those who are strangers, you can ignore completely. But those inbetween, the ones you sort-of know, as a passing acquaintance, they are the ones who are most difficult to handle. And I was stuck with one such on a train journey.She was my aunt's neighbour and I had met her a couple of times before. Very very briefly. But no sooner had I settled down in my seat than she started wondering aloud where she knew me from. Once we had established our route to acquaintanceship, we then carried on talking about our mutual link. My aunt. After I had told her about my aunt's recent widowhood (at which she tutted duly) and her ongoing struggle with diabetes and weight (more tutting), there was little to do. So I asked her about her family and if she had any aunts that I may have lived next door to. Now there was even less to discuss. We fell into a merciful though somewhat awkward silence.Later when she bought coffee from the vendor, she offered to buy me a cup. I said I didn't drink tea or coffee. And when I brought out my lunch packet, I offered to share it with her. It appeared she had already had her lunch. More silence ensued during which I wondered what to talk about next. I asked her if she had seen the latest blockbuster movie. It seems she didn't watch movies. She wondered if I listened to classical music. Only movie songs, I replied. After enquiring about interests in cricket and politics, I realised we had exhausted all possible topics of civil conversation. Religion was too personal and I didn't know her well enough to enquire if she had any illnesses she would like to discuss.Our ordeal came to an end when the train reached its destination half-an-hour later. Finally, as we got off the train, I insisted that we stay in touch. I gave her my number and she duly took it down. My number had an extra '0' in it and she jotted it on piece of scrap paper. ---- Credits to ammani's blog
I think we all run across this episode at least twice a week, either in the bus queue or in the train or now with huge towering apartments even in the building lift or in the office lift or cafetaria....... Share your episode and any suggestions to deal with this scenario
I think we all run across this episode at least twice a week, either in the bus queue or in the train or now with huge towering apartments even in the building lift or in the office lift or cafetaria....... Share your episode and any suggestions to deal with this scenario
Transformation of my Blog
After several attempts to continue postings on my blog i have realised some things,
1. My life doesnt seem to be as happening as other bloggers who have something to write everyday OR
2. I dont have the perspective to create a readable article out of the things which DO happen in my life.
3. My once in a month article is not going to get regular visitors to my blog, which makes the effort of writing in that one stroke of inspiration useless.
4. I am a voracious reader who keeps on scanning and reading blogs on topics from Hypnosis to Terorrism to Child pshycology.
In light of the above I struck upon this idea of creating a Blog where i would aggregate the "Best of my readings". This blog hereupon shall be updated frequently with articles from mutiple blogs, which i find interesting. In short this blog shall transform to " Supermarket of Blogs". Of course just like the Supermarket, the blog shall have "in house" articles written by me in that "wild burst of imagination" :-)
Actually I beleive that this way my blog shall also live up to its name in letting you know "About This and That and Everything Else"
Do let me know if you like this concept of the "blog Supermarket" and of course on the selection of articles !!!
1. My life doesnt seem to be as happening as other bloggers who have something to write everyday OR
2. I dont have the perspective to create a readable article out of the things which DO happen in my life.
3. My once in a month article is not going to get regular visitors to my blog, which makes the effort of writing in that one stroke of inspiration useless.
4. I am a voracious reader who keeps on scanning and reading blogs on topics from Hypnosis to Terorrism to Child pshycology.
In light of the above I struck upon this idea of creating a Blog where i would aggregate the "Best of my readings". This blog hereupon shall be updated frequently with articles from mutiple blogs, which i find interesting. In short this blog shall transform to " Supermarket of Blogs". Of course just like the Supermarket, the blog shall have "in house" articles written by me in that "wild burst of imagination" :-)
Actually I beleive that this way my blog shall also live up to its name in letting you know "About This and That and Everything Else"
Do let me know if you like this concept of the "blog Supermarket" and of course on the selection of articles !!!
Friday, May 11, 2007
"Electrifying" Beauties
Hot Babes, Electrifying beuty... the term now has a literal meaning.
"American designer called Andrew Schneider who has developed, as a project for the ITP Winter Show in New York, what he calls the iDrink swimwear line of solar bikinis. A concept idea has been developed by Schneider to cover it with a socket for recharging a mobile phone while you sunbathe. The iDrink’s photovoltaic film panels allow a fashionable fit while supplying 6.5 V @ 1.5 Amps needed to power a peltier junction and recharge a mobile phone. "
The Bikini also has USB connection so you can charge your iPods and Mp3 players..
Great invention with one problem..... No one wears Bikinis in India and no one sun bathes... i mean no one Sun bathes voluntarily :-).... so how do we modify this to Indian needs.
Our Indian designers must work to develop a iDrink Saree. Imagine what a wonderful use of the pallu this would be to capture solar energy and use it to charge your mobiles and iPods.. Also there shall be no need to sunbathe, all you need to do is get a saree clad woman to raom around on the road.
So imagine Mr. Vijay Shankar who stays in Mulund in Mumbai wants to charge his mobile..... Mulund being Mulund faces power cuts. Vijay is expecting an urgent call so what does he do.... he could loose a multi million deal because of the dead mobile... Bingo...idrink Saree comes to rescue... Vijay asks his wife to go for a walk in the afternoon she comes back in half an hour fully charged and ready to electrify... the mobile in mean... ;-)
Soon we could have Mobile "Mobile charging stations "-- women who shall allow you to "hook" up to them to recharge your "devices"... for a fee and guess what they will be called ..... "Bijlees"....
And guess who should be the Brand ambassador for idrink Saree ---- yes our own ravishing, cricketing, electrifying beauty Mandira bedi....... :-)
"American designer called Andrew Schneider who has developed, as a project for the ITP Winter Show in New York, what he calls the iDrink swimwear line of solar bikinis. A concept idea has been developed by Schneider to cover it with a socket for recharging a mobile phone while you sunbathe. The iDrink’s photovoltaic film panels allow a fashionable fit while supplying 6.5 V @ 1.5 Amps needed to power a peltier junction and recharge a mobile phone. "The Bikini also has USB connection so you can charge your iPods and Mp3 players..
Great invention with one problem..... No one wears Bikinis in India and no one sun bathes... i mean no one Sun bathes voluntarily :-).... so how do we modify this to Indian needs.
Our Indian designers must work to develop a iDrink Saree. Imagine what a wonderful use of the pallu this would be to capture solar energy and use it to charge your mobiles and iPods.. Also there shall be no need to sunbathe, all you need to do is get a saree clad woman to raom around on the road.
So imagine Mr. Vijay Shankar who stays in Mulund in Mumbai wants to charge his mobile..... Mulund being Mulund faces power cuts. Vijay is expecting an urgent call so what does he do.... he could loose a multi million deal because of the dead mobile... Bingo...idrink Saree comes to rescue... Vijay asks his wife to go for a walk in the afternoon she comes back in half an hour fully charged and ready to electrify... the mobile in mean... ;-)
Soon we could have Mobile "Mobile charging stations "-- women who shall allow you to "hook" up to them to recharge your "devices"... for a fee and guess what they will be called ..... "Bijlees"....
And guess who should be the Brand ambassador for idrink Saree ---- yes our own ravishing, cricketing, electrifying beauty Mandira bedi....... :-)
Thursday, May 10, 2007
Google answer to Microsoft Yahoo! merger
Microsoft To Buy out Yahoo!!! ... Goes the recent headlines in a leading Indian business daily. Media Hype or "there is no smoke without fire" only time shall tell. But Telecom pundits have been hinting of this kind of consolidation for a long time. The Google Microsoft fight has already emerged from being the David and Goliath fight to be the "Clash of the Titans" and its now a game of chess with moves and countermoves... with a difference that both continue to invent pawns with new moves :-).
Hypothetically assuming that Microsoft and Yahoo! do come together what does it mean for Google. Microsoft and Yahoo! have a common DNA -- both once virtual monopolies in their respective games are now defending champions in the telecom arena. Microsoft once the undisputed kind of OS has now to contend with increasing advances of Google who has been increasingly popularising the Software as a service model --- check out Googledocs, google spreadsheet and host of other hosted applications in Googles portfolio. Yahoo! on the other hand once an undisputed king of the mail world and IM (atleast in the world apart from US) is now contending with Skype on one hand and Gmail and Google talk on the other. Yahoo! and Microsoft both have been grapling with Googles advances in the search world and Google seems to be a step ahead with its recent purchase of Doubleclick. Both Yahoo! and Microsoft have been impacted by Googles disruptive market models....... I can go on and on about the moves and countermoves between Yahoo!, Microsoft and Google..... but then this post is not about the war-- its about alliances.
"What will be Google response to a Yahoo! Microsoft merger???"
That is the million dollar question. I am no expert but heres my answer
" Google shall merge/buy Apple"
Sounds wierd -- well it should because most of Google and Apples ideas do.....!!!!
Lets look at a basis for Google Apple merger. Google may have several things but it still lacks one thing an OS. Agreed that it is trying to popularise a SAAS model but you still need an OS till you have every computer in the world having access to an always on Broadband connection. And then too the question of security means that some will still prefer a resident OS. So Google gets an OS from Apple, why Apple you say why not Linux....well simply because the DNA of Google and Apple match ----
Google known for innovation just like Apple for its beautiful and innovative interface (Apple users will swear by it)
Google a challenger so has been Apple since its birth.
Google naming ceremony forced-- the orignal name was Googel but since the firts funding cheque came mispelled as Google they adopted this name. Apple naming ceremony forced -- Apple founder told its staff to find a name by evening or he would name it after the first thing he saw-- an Apple on his desk. ...
Hmm ok the last one is one too far. But the point is Google and Apple both have a DNA fit of Innovation, DNA fit of disruptive business model, DNA fit of challengers.
But what does Apple gain... all said and done Apple has still been a niche player in the OS space with compatibility issues, whereas Google is a master at application development and interoperability. Google could complete the job of getting Apple to mainstream.
Imagine the wild possibilities of marrying the craze of the decade "Apple ipod series" with "Googles video and search capabilities" You could soon be searching, sorting many more things using the ipod than just videos from the itunes store.....
Google is the Media on your iPod -- Google TV, Google Mobile and customised e-newspaper all through Apples mind-blowing GUI and device capabilties. Since viewers had to enter their Google IDs--the same ones they used for Gmail and other premium services--the company had already compiled a rich history of their searching and surfing habits.[3] If you spent a lot of time looking at cars on eBay on your Internet enabled Video ipod , for example, you'd be shown automotive ads the next time you watched Google TV on your iPod. Between 70 and 80 percent of the revenue from each ad went to the content provider, just as it had on the Web. Google TV on the iPod customised for you based on your interests tracked by Google and delivered by Apple.
Google is the Internet with Apple as the interface --- Free wi-fi, a faster version of the Web, the Gbrowser, and the cube transform the technology landscape and our language all delivered on the Apple device of the future which is as freindly and fast to use for video and voice as is the Video iPod.
Google- Apple is God -- Everything you do, every device you touch, every interface that you use, every communication that you do is powered by Google and enabled by Apple device.
The possibilties are unlimited.....or are they????
This is my hypothesis.... I invite the readers to add why they think Apple-Google could be "Tango-Charlie" of the Telecom world and also if you feel otherwise. Let the debate begin......
Wednesday, May 09, 2007
The Mobile Web
There is a new Internet world and its on your mobile. I see the scorns on your face and i read your thoughts..."Mobile internet is for the savvy and more importantly rich people who can afford the high end phones" " who would want to surf on the small screed" " where is the technology"... and so on. But heres a news which forecasts that the mobile internet mania is not just a "time machine" and there is actually a huge business community out there who beleives in the Mobi mania.
" Now, mobiles have their own Internet sites. Like the com and .net sites accessible through computers, .mobi sites can now be accessed through your mobiles. And the rush to register names have begun. The names that are most sought after are sex (what else) .mobi, adult, hotels, India, finance, entertainment and shop.mobi. These names were among the first 5,000 ones registered and were gone within the first 10 minutes of the opening of the registration process. One-worded less-common names like ‘scooter’ and ‘graphic’ and two-worded common names like ‘chewinggum’ and ‘dropzone’ went within the first 24 hours. According to dotMobi CEO Neil Edwards’ corporate blog, 95,000 .mobi names were bought within the first 48 hours of opening up of registrations. While the registration process for the dotmobi site was opened in last May, in India the momentum has started building of late primarily due to youngsters. Sachin, who heads Mumbai Hosting, a reseller of domain names and web hosting space to the end consumer says that the takers so far have been mostly youngsters. The websites that are accessible over a PC cannot always be opened in your mobile browser. Rich components like photographs and videos need to be removed. Most mobi-sites right now are purely text-based as it is faster to download over the mobile phone networks. Therefore, companies need to redo or optimise their websites to be made available on the mobile phone. This is also called made-for-mobile Internet."
Thus the Mobi-sites shall change the speeds and the surfing expereince on the net. And remember necessity is the mother of invention so once the content is available, the demand starts building up the devices shall re-engineer themselves to suit everyones wallets and technology shall evolve to cater to the masses. Doesnt this sound similar to the times in 1996 when mobile's were first launced? Hold your breaths and be ready to surf the mobile net.....
" Now, mobiles have their own Internet sites. Like the com and .net sites accessible through computers, .mobi sites can now be accessed through your mobiles. And the rush to register names have begun. The names that are most sought after are sex (what else) .mobi, adult, hotels, India, finance, entertainment and shop.mobi. These names were among the first 5,000 ones registered and were gone within the first 10 minutes of the opening of the registration process. One-worded less-common names like ‘scooter’ and ‘graphic’ and two-worded common names like ‘chewinggum’ and ‘dropzone’ went within the first 24 hours. According to dotMobi CEO Neil Edwards’ corporate blog, 95,000 .mobi names were bought within the first 48 hours of opening up of registrations. While the registration process for the dotmobi site was opened in last May, in India the momentum has started building of late primarily due to youngsters. Sachin, who heads Mumbai Hosting, a reseller of domain names and web hosting space to the end consumer says that the takers so far have been mostly youngsters. The websites that are accessible over a PC cannot always be opened in your mobile browser. Rich components like photographs and videos need to be removed. Most mobi-sites right now are purely text-based as it is faster to download over the mobile phone networks. Therefore, companies need to redo or optimise their websites to be made available on the mobile phone. This is also called made-for-mobile Internet."
Thus the Mobi-sites shall change the speeds and the surfing expereince on the net. And remember necessity is the mother of invention so once the content is available, the demand starts building up the devices shall re-engineer themselves to suit everyones wallets and technology shall evolve to cater to the masses. Doesnt this sound similar to the times in 1996 when mobile's were first launced? Hold your breaths and be ready to surf the mobile net.....
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